Accessible version LatAm At A Glance Rains and rates Economics: El Niño comes with inflation under his arm Temperatures crossed the El Niño threshold in April and hit 1°C in May, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now puts the highest probability on a very strong event in October-December 2026, layering onto already-elevated fertilizer prices. In our view, the first-order concern is inflation, not growth: our statistical analysis finds no material aggregate GDP impact, but flags ...