美债与港股策略 - 10年期美债收益率三季度冲高至5.3%后回落，年内高点或已确认，10月高位震荡回落为大概率事件[7] - 美债收益率经历三阶段演变：实际利率主导平坦化上行、熊陡阶段、数据消化后加息路径明确带来冲高回落[7] - 短期10月FOMC或鹰派暂停加息，中长期美债长端利率将与基本面匹配，AI投资增速为关键变量[7] - 港股卖空占比从极端值回落，深秋反弹条件渐趋成熟，建议杠铃策略：进攻聚焦AI应用科技成长，防守配置央国企红利价值资产[7] - 恒指12个月预测市盈率10.03倍，低于十年均值10.48倍，处约33%分位[7] AI制药与Physical AI - AI加速渗透临床前环节，有望突破反摩尔定律，大幅提升候选分子发现效率并长期改善制药行业回报率[7] - AI制药瓶颈正由前端分子设计转向后端湿实验验证，湿实验平台有望率先受益于分子生成效率提升带来的需求扩容[7] - 分子工厂、模型训练部署、批量靶点发现三种新兴商业模式有望进一步打开AI制药市场空间，建议关注平台型公司[7] - Physical AI机会超越人形机器人，任务经济学决定胜出形态，支持多种机器人架构及力传感、机器视觉和运动控制需求[7] - 全国56,000+智能工厂提供多年升级跑道，盈利复制能力是估值溢价基础[7] 腾讯与古茗 - 腾讯3Q26E营收预计2102亿元人民币，同比+9%；调整后营业利润688亿元人民币，同比-5%，受AI相关折旧和产品投资拖累[7] - 腾讯国内游戏全球领先，国际游戏可能同比-6%至195亿元人民币，因产品排期较薄及高基数；营销服务增长放缓[7] - 腾讯目标价下调2%至470港元，2026E营收8233亿元人民币，同比+10%；调整后净利润2655亿元人民币，同比+2%[7] - 古茗3Q26同店中单位数同比增长，实收率提升为核心驱动，2027年同店目标0–5%[7] - 古茗2026年净开店降至1,100–1,200家，资源转向老店翻新；2027年拟向低饱和省份提速扩张[7] - 古茗给予2027年14倍PE估值，目标价23.9港元，隐含11.1%上行空间[7] 科技与量化策略 - 特斯拉发布第二代Roadster，性能版标价33.2万美元，计划2028年量产交付，结合SpaceX冷气推进技术提升品牌影响力[7] - 谷歌开放Gemini 4 Argon，内部智能体代码提交量+35%，代码回滚减少近三分之一，并展示机器人仿真应用案例[7] - 华为披露麒麟9050系列进展，CPU大核能效+41%，NPU算力+140%，支持30B MoE大模型，2027年芯片已进入测试阶段[7] - 下周A股震荡分化，沪深300和中证500方向具备相对积极的卖盘出清信号，看好大中盘结构性修复机会[7] - 9月CPI同比0.9%，PPI同比5%；新增人民币贷款10800亿元高于预期，M2同比增长7.2%低于预期[7] - 小市值因子拥挤度降至-0.54；建筑材料、基础化工、煤炭和石油石化行业拥挤度相对较高[7] 固收+与绝对收益 - 截至9月18日，全市场固收+基金规模2.99万亿元，共1214只产品，186只净值创历史新高，各类型中位数收益介于0.02%-0.16%[7] - 2026Q3逆周期模型预测通胀环境，9月建议关注房地产、消费、通信设备、证券、石化及煤炭等行业指数[7] - 宏观择时股债20/80策略上周收益0.07%（年内0.59%），叠加行业ETF轮动增强后达0.18%；量化固收+中小盘价值风格年内收益最高达3.91%[7] - 固收+基金规模达30048.14亿元，1230只产品中106只净值创历史新高，各类型业绩中位数分化明显[10] - 逆周期模型预测Q4通胀环境，建议关注煤炭、证券、石化、有色、AI、通信设备，组合超额收益+1.19%[10] - 量化固收+策略中小盘价值风格年内收益4.74%领先，叠加择时后宏观动量小盘价值组合累计收益5.56%[10] 国投智能与电力 - 国投智能2026H1营收同比-12.89%至4.86亿元，新签订单同比+6.5%至7.16亿元，订单增速先于收入回暖[10] - 国投智能AI取证新品密集发布，反诈平台获头部银行及运营商订单，金融客户订单同比+128%，海外落地柬埔寨、老挝、阿联酋项目[10] - 国投智能预计2026-2028年营收14.55/16.31/18.61亿元，给予2026年7.1倍PS，目标市值103.31亿元，目标价12.03元，维持OP评级[10] - 陕西能源自产煤增产对冲电价下行，赵石畔煤矿爬坡推动2026H1煤炭产量同比+34.32%，煤炭GM达59.00%，一体化布局稳定经营[10] - 陕西能源在建装机402万千瓦陆续投产，商洛、延安各一台机组已商运合计101万千瓦，信丰1号机10月点火[10] - 陕西能源预计2026-2028年归母净利润30.60/33.74/34.82亿元，EPS为0.82/0.90/0.93元，给予2027年15倍PE，目标价13.5元[10] - 皖能电力煤电盈利阶段承压，新疆电厂长协煤覆盖率100%，度电利润约0.10元，盈利韧性较强[10] - 皖能电力完成新能公司51%股权收购，新能源装机约346万千瓦；参股机组陆续投产，投资收益有望增长[10] - 皖能电力预计2026–2028年EPS分别为0.73/0.90/1.00元，给予2027年10倍PE，目标价9元[10] - 华能国际燃料成本持续优化，2026年上半年境内标煤单价891.02元/吨，同比-2.84%，供电煤耗287.79克/千瓦时[10] - 华能国际清洁能源占比升至42.16%，可控装机达1.59亿千瓦，持续扩大风电与光伏投资布局[10] - 华能国际预计2026-2028年EPS为0.67/0.73/0.80元，给予2027年15倍PE，目标价10.95元[10] 印度金融 - Axis Bank advances grew +23% YoY led by corporate loans (+34% YoY) and retail (+16.4% YoY)[10] - Axis Bank GNPA declined 12bps QoQ to 1.16%; slippages fell 14% QoQ to Rs48bn; credit cost at 51bps was better than expected[10] - Axis Bank SOTP-based TP of Rs1,510 (1.6x Mar'28e P/ABV); expecting PAT growth of ~23% CAGR and avg RoAE of 14% over FY26-28E[10] - Federal Bank 2QFY27 PPOP +35% YoY, PAT +45% YoY to Rs13.9bn; advances growth accelerated to ~22% YoY[10] - Federal Bank NIM flat QoQ at 3.32%; fee income +32% YoY; GNPA fell 20bps QoQ to 1.32% with slippages ratio at 58bps[10] - Federal Bank Maintain OP with revised TP of Rs375 (~2x P/ABV Mar'28e); expect profit CAGR ~26% over FY26-28e with avg ROA/ROAE of 1.3%/12.9%[10] - Angel One Q2FY27 gross operating Rev +19% YoY at Rs14.3bn, driven by broking Rev +9% YoY and interest income +34% YoY[10] - Angel One total expenses grew 6.9% YoY; cost-to-income ratio improved to 68% vs 76% in Q2FY26; PAT +58% YoY to Rs3.3bn[10] - Angel One Maintain OP with revised TP of Rs360 (cut 5%), implying 19.4x Sep'28E PER; stock trades at FY28E P/E of 15.1x[10] - Ujjivan Small Finance Bank advances growth accelerated to ~32% YoY driven by mortgages; disbursements rose 33% YoY to ~Rs106bn in 2QFY27[10] - Ujjivan NIM declined 10bps QoQ to 8.4%; CASA ratio fell to 26% as bulk deposits drove growth[10] - Ujjivan Revised TP of Rs80 implies 1.8x Mar'28e ABV; expects PAT +48% CAGR over FY26-28e with avg ROAE ~16.7%[10] - HDFC AMC MF QAAUM reached Rs 9.7trn (+4% QoQ), with active equity QAAUM growing 6% QoQ to Rs 6.1trn, driving revenue yield improvement to 48bps[10] - HDFC AMC Operating Rev grew 6% QoQ (+14% YoY) to Rs11.7bn; core PAT rose 9% QoQ (+9% YoY) to Rs6.9bn on lower expense yield[10] - HDFC AMC TP raised to Rs3,120 (+3%) using 3-stage dividend discount model, implying 34.4x PE on Sep'28E PAT[10] 印度金融与保险 - Persistent System AI-led software reinvention and large transformation deals drive growth; Nagaro acquisition to enhance geographic diversification[12] - Persistent System EBIT margin at 15.0%, down 100 bps QoQ on wage hikes and amortization; management targets 16–17% margin[12] - Persistent System Large software deal valued at USD 650+ mn over 6.5 years provides Rev visibility; no explicit target price provided[12] - Jio Financial Services Holdco PPOP (adj. for dividend income) rose 85% YoY/14% QoQ; NII surged 165% to Rs6.8bn; total income +29.4% YoY[12] - Jio Financial Services Jio Credit AUM +24% QoQ to Rs373bn; profit +31% QoQ; NIM at 3.55% (-10bps QoQ); credit cost rose to 48bps[12] - Jio Financial Services AMC QAAUM scaled to ~Rs228bn (+27% QoQ); insurance premiums +45% QoQ; no target price or valuation provided (Not Rated)[12] - HDFC Life Insurance Bancassurance channel recovery with Individual APE from HDFC Bank +12% YoY in Q2FY26; all other channels showed double-digit growth in H1FY27[12] - HDFC Life Insurance VNB +12% YoY to Rs20.4bn in H1FY27; net profit +13.4%/12.6% YoY in Q2FY27/H1FY27; VNB margin stable at 24.7%[12] - HDFC Life Insurance Maintain OP with TP Rs710; FY26-28E APE CAGR 14%; valuation at FY28 P/EV of 1.8x based on Gordon Growth model[12] - Indian Bank Advances grew 16.4% YoY led by retail & agri loans; NIMs stable at 3.42% with expected expansion from repo rate hike on EBLR-linked loans[12] - Indian Bank Asset quality improved with GNPA falling to 1.61%; credit cost declined to 21bps with additional std. provisioning of Rs18.8bn including Rs15bn toward ECL[12] - Indian Bank Maintain OP with RI-based TP of Rs1,025 (1.2x Mar'28e P/ABV); expect PAT ~12% CAGR and avg. ROAA/ROAE of 1.3%/16.2% over FY27-28e[12]