中国房地产：库存结构与资产负债表实力决定ROE修复路径，售价是上行关键；买入中海、华润、中国金茂，上调招商蛇口至买入China Property_ Inventory structure and balance sheet depth differentiate ROE recovery path; ASP key to upside; Buy COLI, CRL, Jinmao, upgrade CMSK to Buy
2026-10-21 18:3920 October 2026 | 5:13PM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY Inventory structure and balance sheet depth differentiate ROE recovery path; ASP key to upside; Buy COLI, CRL, Jinmao, upgrade CMSK to Buy We expect sales model reforms (here and here) to slow ROE recovery across the housing sector. Our analysis of inventory, city exposure, and balance sheet suggests that companies with higher saleable resources, longer duration of land reserves, higher exposure to higher-tier cities, and lower leverage/debt repaym ...