$4,219 Sets First Recovery TriggerSince a lower swing high of $4,219 has been established at Wednesday’s high, that is short-term resistance and the first level that would need to be recovered before there is a chance that gold goes higher. Resistance that would follow is near the lower swing high at $4,316. A recovery above each of those levels would signal a reversal of the very short-term downtrend, which is bullish.Confluence Near $4,316 Raises StakesThe $4,316 area gains significance since it is reinfo ...

通胀与美联储利率预期 - 通胀意外放缓使市场对10月美联储加息的预期从约45%降至约36-38%，上周为70% [1] - 美联储加息预计将对经济中所有利率敏感领域产生负面影响，并推高黄金和白银价格 [1] - 纽约联储主席John Williams表示近期没有理由从当前水平加息 [2] - 根据联邦基金期货市场，年底前联邦基金利率上升的概率较高 [2] 价格环境与贵金属 - 长期美国国债仍处于高位 [2] - 美元持续走强，叠加高通胀，限制了黄金和白银的上行空间 [2] 非农就业报告展望 - 市场关注周五公布的美国非农就业报告 [3] - 该报告预计将显示8月招聘减少 [3] - 当前失业率为4.1%，预计将保持不变 [3] - 更差的报告可能表明美联储不会在近期加息 [3] - 更好的报告可能表明美联储可能在10月加息 [3] 伊朗局势与通胀风险 - 伊朗局势带来的不确定性产生负面影响 [4] - 伊朗表示不会与伊拉克续签停火协议 [4] - 如果停火协议未能续签，石油运输可能增加 [4] - 若石油运输增加，可能引发通胀再次上升 [4]