技术指标与关键阻力 - 50日移动平均线已下穿100日移动平均线，强化了该区域的阻力意义，当前50日线位于4769美元，100日线位于4782美元 [1] - 由于价格在最近一次上涨中恰好触及50日线后遇阻回落，因此预计卖方可能再次在该区域附近做出反应 [1] 长期趋势与关键转折条件 - 黄金长期处于牛市趋势中，但当前处于明确的回调下跌阶段，除非出现更强的看涨证据，否则看跌调整预计将持续 [2] - 趋势扭转的关键看涨信号需要价格果断且持续地收复100日移动平均线，并随后在近期较低的摆动高点4890美元上方形成看涨反转信号 [2] 短期价格走势与后续方向 - 若价格果断跌破周五低点4674美元，则更可能意味着回调的延续，因为这将形成一个更低的摆动高点，并发出更大级别看跌调整持续的信号 [3] - 尽管技术上在周五已发出反转信号，但后续的卖压有限，使黄金价格仍处于分析开始时提到的关键转折点上 [3]

Bearish Structure Still Dominates Price ActionThe dominant pattern remains a declining structure, with the potential for a lower swing high to be established from Thursday’s price action. A break back below the 20-day moving average, now at $4,697, will trigger on a drop below Thursday’s higher daily low of $4,685, which takes the form of an inverted hammer candlestick.That would suggest that the larger bearish pattern is progressing. A new lower swing high was established in April, which was the top of a r ...

200-Day Moving Average as Structural AnchorRegardless, the 200-day moving average was confirmed as support during the recent sharp selloff that generated a higher swing low at $4,099 in March. That was the first time it was tested since February 2024 and it should mark signs of support again, if approached. Moreover, it would not be surprising to see a bottom to the current retracement established without another test of support near the 200-day moving average. This reinforces the idea that intermediate sup ...