芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)的FedWatch工具显示，截至周五，金融市场反映出美联储将在7月下调基准利率的可能 性为51%，并普遍定价今年可能降息三次25个基点。然而，经济和利率的前景比以往更加不确定——没有人确切知道现代经 济及其极其复杂的供应链将如何应对几代人以来最高的关税。 | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE | 175-200 | 200-225 | 225-250 | 250-275 | 275-300 | 300-325 | 325-350 | 350-375 | 375-400 | 400-425 | 425-450 | | 2025/6/18 | | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.2% | 82.8% | | 2025/7/30 | ...