证券研究报告 跟踪经济、掘金市场 策略月报：EPMI 景气持续，创业板创历史新高（2026 年 6 月） 主要观点： 1. 市场回顾：油价震荡回落，全球股市风险偏好回升 尽管美伊谈判尚未敲定最终协议，且谈判期间美伊一度爆发军事冲 突，但布伦特原油依然震荡走弱。5 月 28 日，报收 92.4 美元/桶，显示 期货市场已显著下调对油价极端上行的风险溢价。 全球 AI 浪潮同频共振，韩国股市大幅领涨，年内涨幅超过 90%；A 股 科创板块表现领先，创业板指、科创 50 均于 5 月份创历史新高，上证指 数、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、国证 2000 等宽基指数均创出年内 新高。但行业表现极度分化，AI 创新与能源产业链表现强劲，内需消费 与金融地产普遍下跌，31 个申万一级行业中，仅 13 个行业年内上涨。 2. 经济环境：盈利复苏继续验证 工业企业盈利复苏加快。1—4 月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润 总额同比增长 18.2%，4 月当月利润同比增长 24.7%。工业企业营业收入 利润率为 5.43%，同比回升 0.56 个百分点，环比提高 0.32 个百分点。 CPI 与 PPI 持续回升，成 ...

宏观经济点评 2026 年 07 月 15 日 总量尚稳，下半年投资为关键变量 宏观研究团队 ——Q2 GDP&6 月经济数据点评 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 2、生产端：工业生产提速，新旧动能分化延续。6 月规模以上工业增加值同比 增长 5.3%，较前值加快 0.8 个百分点，出口和高技术制造业构成主要支撑。出 口交货值增速明显回升，高技术制造业增加值增长 14.1%，运输设备、计算机通 信设备制造业均保持较快增长；煤炭开采受安全生产等因素影响明显放缓。 6 月服务业生产指数同比增长 4.7%，较前值加快 0.3 个百分点，服务业生产延续 改善。 shenmeichen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524110002 GDP：二季度经济动能放缓，平减指数转正 1、Q2实际 GDP同比增长 4.3%，回落 0.7个百分点；上半年 GDP同比增长 4.7%， 处于全年目标区间。第二产业同比增速降至 3.0%，是经济放缓的主要拖累；第 三产业同比增长 5.1%，服务业保持韧性。Q2GDP 平减指数约为 1.53%，结束 此前负 ...

Flash | 15 Jul 2026 09:34:50 ET │ 13 pages Morgan Stanley (MS.N) 2Q26 Initial Take - ~54c Core PPNR Beat Led by Equities Trading CITI'S TAKE MS reported a 54c core PPNR beat driven by a large beat from Institutional Securities (55c to cons). While banking was modestly ahead of expectations, Equities trading produced a record quarter up 69% y/y. WM continues to be an area of strength, aiding 8c in the consensus beat with NNA growth of $148 bil (~8.1% annualized) and a 30.5% pre-tax margin, while Investment M ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 15 July 2026 J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence Munis lagged thus far this week heading into a challenging competitive calendar. 2H July reinvestment. Figure 2: Daily municipal fund flow observations Municipal fund flows ($mn) -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Trailing 20 session JPM estimated fund flow ETF Flow Open-end Flow 20 Day Avg | All Muni | 267 | 861 | 1,581 | 2,800 | 55,259 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Open-end | 106 | 364 | 809 | 1,309 | ...

Action | 15 Jul 2026 08:34:44 ET │ 12 pages Dexco SA (DXCO3.SA) 2Q26 Preview: Deleveraging on Track Buy / High Risk | Price (14 Jul 26 18:00) | R$5.09 | | --- | --- | | Target price | R$7.50 | | Expected share price return | 47.3% | | Expected dividend yield | 1.2% | | Expected total return | 48.5% | | Market Cap | R$4,678M | | | US$922M | Gabriel BarraAC CITI'S TAKE The prevailing market concern was that cost headwinds from the ongoing geopolitical conflict could weigh significantly on the quarter, but we ...

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J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research 15 July 2026 Genmab A/S Q2'26 First Take from JNJ: Darzalex 3% beat vs. GMAB consensus, expected Darzalex guidance upgrade implies modest upside to cons Dara expectations Our Take: Ahead of Genmab's detailed Q2'26 results on August 6, JNJ (covered by Chris Schott) has reported Q2'26 Darzalex sales of $4,207m, 3% above Genmab consensus of $4,074m (in line with JNJ BBG consensus) and 5% ahead of JPMe. The beat vs. JPMe was driven by US sales of $2,435m, which came in 7% ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026 J P M O R G A N Cosmetics & Personal Care Sector (Japan) DATA & NEWS: June data indicate robust Chinese demand for cosmetics Key data show that sales of cosmetics in May accelerated compared with April at drugstores and department stores. Cosmetics sales at major department stores in June also maintained YoY growth. In China, cosmetics imports swung to growth YoY in June, and sales growth momentum at large retailers accelerated again. We believe these data points ar ...

Flash | 15 Jul 2026 06:40:41 ET │ 11 pages China Renewable Energy Solar Product Prices Further Dipped; Companies Loss-Making except Inverter and PV Film Players CITI'S TAKE China Renewable Energy 15 July 2026 Citi Research PRC solar supply chain continues to face downward pressure from oversupply-led ASP cuts, including down 0.6-1.1% wow for polysilicon, wafter, solar cell and module prices. Most PRC solar equipment suppliers were loss-making in 1H26E dragged by low product prices and weak demand, except in ...

15 July 2026 RMBS Delinquency Chartbook John Sim AC (1-212) 834-3124 john.sim@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Ani Gelashvili (1-212) 834-2605 ani.gelashvili@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Isabella Lee (1-212) 834-4148 isabella.lee@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC North America Securitized Products Research J P M O R G A N Isabella Lee (1-212) 834-4148 isabella.lee@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC July 2026 1 {[{3S8_bsE9ld5ExDTjNnnCBOUw_z0MBKj7YX7io3zm1wmxlNzCNp1CMKBqBgSWhwDLj8 ...