The US economic data today showed weakness in the employment (initial jobs claims 263K versus 235K estimate), and higher CPI. However, the upside surprise was largely driven by housing costs rather than tariffs. Rent rose 0.34% month-over-month, the fastest pace since December 2024, while shelter costs climbed 0.39% month-over-month, the biggest increase since January 2025. Both components remain sticky drivers of inflation, though real-time indicators suggest that housing prices are already softening. As a ...