“Bust or boom?” That’s the big question at the heart of UBS’ big forecast for the U.S. economy for 2026 through 2028. But the team led by economist Jonathan Pingle also tackles a question that economists have been raising throughout 2025: the fact that tariffs amount to a large tax increase in all but name. Their analysis finds that the tariffs are acting as a substantial drag on growth and are actively contributing to persistent inflation, eroding real income gains for consumers. “The tariffs are a big t ...