An oil pumpjack stands in a barren landscape at sunset, with long pipelines running across the ground and an illuminated refinery visible in the distance. Key Points The EIA forecasts oil prices will fall over 20% by the end of 2026 due to a sustained global supply surplus. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE), heavily weighted in ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, faces continued underperformance. Institutional sentiment is tepid, with high short interest and nearly equal numbers of ...