My 2026 outlook for the S&P500 ( SP500 ) is a recessionary bear market with the AI bubble burst , in which case the S&P500 could fall significantly, possibly down to 4100.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is ...