Key Takeaways In recent years, the start of a new calendar year has also been accompanied by concerns about an impending economic recession; however, most forecasters expect the U.S. to steer clear of an economic downturn in 2026. But whether the U.S. economy sees the "soft landing†that some had forecast remains a question. For example, JPMorgan expects economic growth in the first half of 2026 to be around 3%, primarily driven by the stimulus effects from the OBBBA, but then slowing to between 1% and 2% gr ...