Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no chance of an early-year payout.Betting On Delay: Creation Vs. CashData from prediction platforms reveals a sharp divergence between the program’s potential creation and the actual delivery of funds.On Polymarket, traders are giving the administration a coin-flip chance, pricing in a 45% probability that Trump ...