Kalshi, the prediction marketplace for betting on news events and real-world outcomes, has racked up a list of notable successes over the past few years. The site successfully predicted President Trump’s election in 2024, and foresaw Zohran Mamdani’s clinching the Democratic Party’s nomination in the New York mayoral primary last June, even as the polls had him trailing behind former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Now, a new study shows Kalshi has been accurately predicting Fed rate decisions since 2022. A January ...