Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee at his Fed chair confirmation hearing, Kevin Warsh pushed back on the idea he was accepting the job as a rate-cutting foot soldier for the White House: "The president never asked me to commit to interest rate cuts. He did not demand it." That sentence, delivered against a backdrop of Trump publicly saying he would be disappointed if Warsh failed to cut immediately, was the most important portfolio signal of the year so far. The CME FedWatch tool now shows no more ...