M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts August 18, 2025 09:12 PM GMT Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: In the US, employment growth is moderating faster than anticipated, and we view this as a meaningful signal in that there are downside risks to the labor market. The July CPI print showed firming (core rose to 3.1% y/y) even as the mix was tricky with services firming. We expect another step-up in the August report. The August CPI report and payrolls report will be ...