Undoubtedly, macroeconomic analysis today is impossible without factoring in the geopolitical context. The situation in the Middle East, the tension around the Strait of Hormuz, and, as a consequence, oil (CLK26) entrenching itself at high levels — this is a powerful factor exerting colossal pressure on business expenses and inflationary expectations. To ignore the energy shock would be a mistake; the cost of a barrel directly translates into higher prices for logistics and production, forcing the Fed to re ...