ab 18 June 2025 Global Research US Economic Perspectives June FOMC: The Fed's new outlook FOMC median policy assumption this year unchanged The FOMC left rates unchanged at their meeting this week but not their projections. In the June Summary of Economic Projections, the median assumption of appropriate policy (the median "dot") for 2025 was left unrevised at 3.9%, below our expectation for a 25 bp upward revision. However, 2026 revised up 25 bp to 3.6%, which was in line with our expectations, and up 25 b ...

市场变量变化 - 3月6日至5月14日，欧元兑一篮子贸易加权货币升值4%，兑美元升值8%[2][5][7] - 同期，石油和天然气现货价格下跌25%，10年期收益率远期在各预测期内下跌25 - 40个基点[2][5][6][7] 对通胀和增长预测的影响 - 技术假设变化将使2026年初整体和核心同比通胀预测分别降低0.6个百分点和0.3个百分点[5][12][18] - 预计2026年整体和核心通胀预测年均值分别降至1.7%和1.8%，2025年剩余时间增长预测降至季环比0.1%（非年化）[5][17] 欧洲央行决策预期 - 预计欧洲央行管理委员会下周会议降息25个基点，7月可能再降息至1.75%[5][21]