(Bloomberg) -- Bets on a ceasefire between the US and Iran have sent more than $170 million coursing through Polymarket, making it one of the largest geopolitical wagers in the short history of prediction markets. Now, the aftermath is raising the same questions that have dogged the platforms for months: whether bettors are trading on inside information, and whether the platforms can cleanly settle the contracts they broker. A series of well-timed Iran wagers placed on Polymarket by freshly created anon ...

An Israeli Defense Forces reservist and a civilian have been indicted for allegedly using classified intelligence about Israel’s April 2024 retaliatory strikes on Iran to place bets on Polymarket. The Alleged Scheme The pair allegedly profited by betting on the timing and outcomes of the military operation using non-public information they accessed weeks before the strikes occurred. Prosecutors are calling them “severe offenses” in what appears to be the first criminal case of insider trading on predict ...