Thank you to the 2,792 readers (and counting) who have submitted their estimates for the probability of a 30% stock market drop over the coming year. If you haven’t read the article yet, you canVictor Haghani has spent 30 years actively involved in markets and financial innovation. He started his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers, in research and then in the Bond Arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. Victor was a founding partner of LTCM. After a 10-year sabbatical from the investing business, Victor fou ...

Is a stock market crash just around the corner? It’s a question on a lot of investors’ minds these days. In this note we’ll explore a few different approaches to answering this question, including a detailed explanation of our favorite.Victor Haghani has spent 30 years actively involved in markets and financial innovation. He started his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers, in research and then in the Bond Arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. Victor was a founding partner of LTCM. After a 10-year sabbatic ...