When 2025 began, Wall Street was awash in excitement. A new President was about to take office  — even if he'd been in the office once before. Most investment professionals expected interest rates to come down. That tax cuts were on the way was judged a certainty. Regulation might be reduced substantially. And what Wall Street certainly saw was a continuation of the 2024 bull market. What could possibly go wrong? Well, there was Donald Trump's decision in early April to impose massive tariffs on just a ...

市场对美联储降息的预期与反应 - 市场参与者已长时间预期并交易美联储降息 这一预期是推动市场达到当前水平的主要因素 而非突如其来的消息[3] - 讨论提及降息幅度可能为25或50个基点 并认为具体幅度对市场影响差异不大 关键在于其能维持市场的活跃度[1] 行业板块表现与估值分析 - 工业板块虽从基本面看受益于降息周期 但目前是标普500指数中估值最昂贵的板块[4] - 相比之下 由金融板块引领的上涨更令人感到安心 因为即使在大盘股中 金融板块仍具备相对的估值优势[4] 市场前景与风险框架 - 分析框架将市场回撤分为四个等级 其中第二级为增长担忧引发的15%至20%的回撤 但当前并不预期此类深幅调整[5] - 预计市场可能出现第一等级的常规性回撤 幅度在5%至10%之间 甚至可能不到10% 这足以消除市场中的部分泡沫[6] - 尽管长期路径看涨 但短期内可能遭遇一些未预料到的坎坷 特别是劳动力市场出现的新不确定性[7]