U.S. economic growth will likely come in at 3.3% for the third quarter of 2025, according to traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi. This is based on traders placing the odds at economic growth coming in above 2.5% at 83%, the odds of economic growth coming in above 3% at 63%, and the odds of economic growth coming in above 3.5% at just 37%. This would mean a sharp uptick from the advance gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate of 3% for Q2, signaling rising optimism around consumer resilie ...

When politicians talk about the economy, they rarely stick to the fine print. A recent segment from economist and TV host Larry Kudlow praised what he called "The Trump Effect", a mix of tax cuts, market optimism and a blue-collar boom. It sounds exciting but Kudlow has also previously been singled out by decision scientists as a "consistently wrong" pundit[1], so what's the truth? Must Read What Kudlow argued Kudlow’s look at revised government data that showed U.S. GDP growing at 3.8% during the se ...