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全球农业:厄尔尼诺展望-气象专家线上研讨会要点-Global Agribusiness -El Niño Outlook Insights from a Weather Expert Webinar
2026-10-21 18:38
September 24, 2026 08:17 PM GMT Global Agribusiness | Latin America El Niño Outlook: Insights from a Weather Expert Webinar We hosted Kevin Marcus, a meteorologist, agronomist, and president of Marcus Weather (MW), to discuss the potential weather impacts on global crops. Weather risks are high and largely skewed bullish for agricultural commodity prices, with Brazil remaining the critical watchpoint ahead. Key Takeaways We hosted Kevin Marcus, President of Marcus Weather, to discuss the evolving El Niño ou ...
中国9月原材料价格走势及其对相关股票的影响-China Consumer Raw Materials Price Chartbook-Raw Material Price Movements (Sept-26) and Stock Implications
2026-10-21 18:37
October 8, 2026 03:54 PM GMT China Consumer: Raw Materials Price Chartbook | Asia Pacific Raw Material Price Movements (Sept-26) and Stock Implications In last month's summary of key raw material price trends and implications for relevant Hong Kong/China consumer stocks, we highlighted the sustained headwinds from the uptick in PET and copper prices, while hog prices slightly increased and the recovery of raw milk price continued. Implications for stocks Yili (600887.SS, OW), Mengniu (2319.HK, OW): Raw milk ...
中国必需消费品-9月成本追踪:PET价格创新高,约9500元吨;糖、大豆环比涨价或受厄尔尼诺影响,原奶及浓缩乳清蛋白因供需因素涨价
2026-10-21 18:36
CHINA CONSUMER STAPLES COST INDEX TRACKER 13 October 2026 | 8:10AM HKT Equity Research The dairy supply-demand balance continues to improve with raw milk prices trending slightly up by 1.3% YoY in Oct-1 as the bright side, and imported milk powder volume was 26 kton in Aug 2026, -36% YoY/dry dairy products at 109 kton at -15% yoy incl. imported whey powder/whey powder concentrates at 50kton/2.5kton, -24%/-19% yoy, while US WPC (34%) prices were +15%/+55% Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with comp ...
食糖-主产国减产逻辑强化-国际糖价持续上行可期
2026-10-21 18:36
食糖:主产国减产逻辑强化,国际糖价持续上行可期 20261019 全球食糖减产共振,库销比下修支撑国际糖价上行 摘要 全球食糖供需格局由过剩转为紧缺,2026/27 榨季全球库销比预计从 24.7%下修至 21.2%-21.8%,支撑国际糖价进入第八轮上行周期。 巴西作为最大供应方,受长雨季导致含糖量下降影响,2026/27 榨季截 至 9 月底累计产量同比下降 13.4%,出口量同比下降 17.4%,减产趋 势明确。 印度由净出口国转为净进口国,受干旱及病虫害影响,2026/27 榨季预 期产量约 2,900 万吨(同比-6%),政府已实施出口禁令并开启免税进 口。 泰国与欧盟产量预期大幅回落,泰国因干旱及农户转种木薯预计减产 >17%,欧盟甜菜糖产量或降至 2010 年以来最低水平,出口量预计腰 斩。 国内市场呈现供需紧平衡,2025/26 榨季预估产量 1,295 万吨(同比 +16%),但因 30%需求依赖进口,海外高糖价将通过配额外进口成本 倒挂支撑国内糖价温和上行。 Q&A 中国食糖市场的供需格局、周期性特征以及对外依存度是怎样的? 中国食糖市场供求呈现紧平衡状态,价格具有周期性波动特征。作为全球 ...