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美国利率策略：调整美联储政策预判后，更新美国国债收益率预测-US Rates Strategy-New US Treasury Yield Forecasts After New Fed Call
2026-10-21 18:38
September 24, 2026 07:56 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America Please add me to your distribution list. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matthew Hornbach Strategist Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 Martin W Tobias, CFA Strategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076 Shaun Zhou Strategist Shaun.Zhou@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3348 Aryaman Singh Strategist Aryaman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1993 Eli P Carter Strategist Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with compan ...
全球市场：美国国债收益率上升的驱动因素-Global Markets Daily_ The Factors Behind the Rise in US Yields
2026-10-21 18:36
12 October 2026 | 4:08PM EDT Economics Research n US Treasury yields have risen across the curve, with front-end pricing hawkish relative to our economists' Fed baseline and longer-term forwards 40-to-50bp above fair value. The move has come in phases, with a lower vol regime through much of the summer giving way to a higher vol selloff more recently. n The reassessment of the expected policy path from cuts to hikes amid increased inflation risks and diminished labor market concerns since the eve of the US- ...
全球宏观：核心预测、未来12个月展望及高确信度判断-Global Macro_ Key Forecasts; Next 12-Months Outlook_ Our High-Conviction Calls
2026-10-21 18:36
M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts October 13, 2026 06:23 PM GMT Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Our global and US economic outlook remains constructive: US growth is resilient despite the focus on higher rates. After the Sep rate hike, we see two more hikes in this mini-recalibration (Sep, Dec, and Mar). Market uncertainty around the Fed, growth, corporate issuance, and oil are all contributing to rising expectations of monetary tightening over the next 12 months. While we do not se ...
美国利率策略：风险裂痕重现，美债避险需求回升US Rates Strategy -Risk Cracks Revive Treasury Haven Demand
2026-10-21 18:36
October 17, 2026 12:53 AM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America Risk Cracks Revive Treasury Haven Demand For all the hand-wringing about US Treasury debt levels - which are on track to hit the statutory limit of $41.1tr by March 2027 - it was acute investor misgivings about AI corporate debt sustainability that provided a resounding answer to whether US Treasuries still perform as a risk-off hedge. Key Takeaways M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Martin W Tobias, CFA Strategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com ...