行业或公司 * 中国经济 * 亚太地区 核心观点和论据 * 北京首次在十多年后对即将在3月全国人大会议上全面公布的财政计划提供了前瞻性指导。[1] * 市场对上周模糊的CEWC声明反应失望后，此次前瞻性指导被视为积极一步。[1] * 指示逐步增加消费支持、加快住房库存消化以及更多支持解决地方政府债务。[1] * 财政计划可能保持适度，但结构略有改善。[1] * 消费：显著增加用于消费品以旧换新的特别长期国债规模。观点：该计划可能明年翻倍，达到3000亿元人民币，涵盖更多非耐用品（例如，手机、平板电脑）。[1] * 住房：使用地方政府专项债券支持住房库存消化，并赋予地方政府更多自主权来设定住房回购的资格标准。观点：住房回购计划规模可能与今年相似（约3000亿元人民币），但放宽标准可能有助于加快实施。[1] * 地方政府财政约束：更多努力促进中央-地方财政改革（包括某些商品的消费税改革）和解决对企业的债务。[1] * 我们认为，北京将采用更多中央政府杠杆来支持经济，并使用地方债务互换来减轻通缩螺旋下降的风险。[1] * 尽管可能有一个消费税改革试点项目（例如，高端手表、珠宝），但由于通缩经济，全面实施的可能性不大。[1] 其他重要内容 * 无 引用原文 [1] M Update | China Economics | Asia Pacific | What's after CEWC? Beijing Provides Rare Forward Guidance | Key Takeaways | Beijing, for the first time in more than a decade, provided forward guidance today to the fiscal package to be fully announced in March NPC | This was after the market reacted disappointedly to the vague CEWC statement last week | It indicated incrementally larger consumption support, faster housing inventory digestion, and more support to settle local government payables | We view this as a positive step, although the fiscal package will likely remain modest with a slightly improved mix | Key highlights today: | Consumption: Significant increase in special long-term CGBs for consumer goods trade-in program | Our view: The program will likely double the size, to Rmb300bn next year, covering more non-durable goods (e.g., mobile phones, tablets) | Housing: Use LGSB to support housing inventory digestion, and give local government more autonomy in setting criteria for housing buyback | Our view: Size of housing buyback program could be similar to this year's (~Rmb300bn), but easing the criteria may help accelerate the implementation | Local government fiscal constraints: More efforts on promoting central-local fiscal reforms (including consumption tax reform on certain items) and settling payables to corporates | Our view: We think Beijing will adopt more central government leveraging to support the economy and use local debt swaps to mitigate the risk of a deflationary downward spiral | While there could be a pilot program on consumption tax reform (e.g., high-end watches, jewelry), broad-based implementation is unlikely, given the deflationary economy