6 January 2025 Aluminium Sector Equities A rough start to 2025 China Alumina future price slumps, indicating that supply is no longer in deficit As we expected, the alumina future price has declined by over 10% since the beginning of 2025 to cRMB4,250 (vs. an average price of RMB3,800 in 2024 and RMB3,100 in 2023), indicating that the supply shortage has started to ease as 1) demand declines in the traditional off season before Chinese New Year (CNY); and 2) a resumption of Rio Tinto's capacity and ramping ...