[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- August 24, 2025 07:26 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Growth Cool, Policy Drip, Market Buoyant Related Reports: Growth Cool, Policy Drip, Market Buoyant (21 August 2025) Is the HIBOR Spike a Headwind? (20 August 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 M Growth Is Slowing in August Container ships from China to the US slowed MTD, pointing to payback of previous export front-loading -120% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 YoY China exports to US Cargo-carrying container ships from China to the US-RS MTD -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 YoY CPCA Auto Volume Sales Online Home Appliance Volume Sales* MTD Source: Bloomberg, CMM, Morgan Stanley Research Auto and home appliance sales growth slumped in early August M Continued Property Downtrend 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Weekly secondary home sales (4WMA, units) 2019-2023 avg. 2024 2025 -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 Transaction price m-m Transaction price y-y (RHS) Source: Wind, Beike, Morgan Stanley Research Foundation Weakening secondary home sales... ...and transaction price M Fading Fiscal Impulse Caps Infrastructure Capex A modest rebound in cement shipment suggests reduced weather disruption on infrastructure... ...but sustainability is in question, given reduced fiscal impulse from August 0 10 20 30 40 50 极速 70 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Weekly Cement Shipments in China 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 mt 540 688 1618 821 993 1158 1179 766 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1H Avg Jul Aug MTD Sep-Dec Avg (E) Net Govt. Bond Financing (excluding special financing bond), RMB Bn 2024 2025 极速 Source: Digital Cement, Wind, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research M Why Market Sentiment Holds Up 1: Liquidity -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 极速 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 MSCI China, YoY Chg% China Free Liquidity, YoY Chg%, RHS MS Estimated China Free Liquidity, RHS MS Free Liquidity Indicator finally turned positive from June Major institutions and retail investors may have brought ~Rmb1.5-1.7trn inflow to A share market in 1H25 Insurance: 600 Private funds: 280 Mutual funds: 90-100 PBoC swap & relending: 135 400-500 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Major institutions Retail Investors 1H25 Inflows to A-share Market, Rmb bn Source: CE极速IC, Wind, PBoC, MSCI, AMAM, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. LHS chart note: Data as of end-July 2025. Free Liquidity = M1 growth less Producer Price Inflation less Industrial Production growth (极速3-month moving average is used for IP YoY). Plotted trendline represents Morgan Stanley Economics team's quarterly estimates for 2极速Q25 through 4Q25. For M1 since 2025, we used official M1 - household demand deposit. M Why Market Sentiment Holds Up 1: Liquidity (Cont.) Signs of household asset allocation towards stock market, with larger-than-seasonal drop in household deposits... (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec New Household Deposits, RMB bn Past 5Y Avg. 2024 2025 (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec New Non-bank Financial Institution Deposit (Rmb bn) Past 5Y Avg. 2024 2025 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research ...and strong increase in deposit of non-bank financial institutions in July M Why Market Sentiment Holds Up 2: Narrative Small steps in the right direction, with the anti-involution push… …and recently announced pro-consumption measures …… Interest subsidy on consumer loans Free Preschool Education New Birth Subsidy Rmb3,600/year for children under three years old (~Rmb100bn/year in total) ~Rmb60bn/year in total once fully rolled out Possible subsidy amount: ~Rmb50bn Worst Case The economy may fall back to deflation after short-lived price upswings in some sectors, as final demand remains weak. Less Optimal Scenario Fast reflation in the near- term, but old habits die hard. Misallocation could re- appear in other sectors and cause involuted competition and price pressures. Base Case Deflation to persist into 2026 as reflation remains gradual; but exit from deflation 极速would be durable. Ideal Scenario More robust and sustainable reflation to take hold as economic rebalancing speed up. Anti-involution Implementation Market-based Measures +Structural Reforms Soft Accommodative Campaign-style Demand Condition Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research M Current Market Narrative May Hold in the Near Term <doc极速 id='31'>Near-term inflation and credit data will continue to be supported by a low base -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jul-21 Nov-21 Mar-22 Jul-22 Nov-22 Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 YoY% PPI M1 Low base US-China trade relations appear anchored in the near term by framework agreements and strategic leverage over rare earths 107% 71% 61% 45% 11% 22% 34% 59% 123% 40% 42% 43% 43% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr 2, 2025 Apr 10, 2025 Apr 11, 2025 May 12, 2025 Jun 3, 2025 Aug 1, 2025 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25极速E US Weighted Avg. Tariffs on China's Exports Previously Assumed Tariff Path Before May 12th Tariff Path in our New Baseline Two potential triggers that could disrupt positive narratives on reflation and the market: However, these are NOT our base case, at least for the near term Source: CEIC, White House, Dataweb, Morgan Stanley Research • A sharp growth/earnings slowdown • An unexpected escalation of trade tensions M Some Nuances in PBoC's Stance Towards Liquidity Management PBoC has reduced the magnitude of net liquidity injection since June... ...as 7-day interbank rate shifts towards its benchmark level 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23 Oct-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Oct-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 % p.a. DR007 7D Reverse Repo Rate (Policy Rate) The 2Q Monetary Policy Implementation Report released on August 15th re-mentioned "guarding against idle funds" again, after dropping this in the 1Q report, and omitted prior references to "making good use of swap facilities for securities, funds, and insurance companies, as well as stock repurchase loans" Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. M But Immediate Stock Market Curbs Appear Unlikely, Given Still Reasonable Leverage A-share margin financing balance as a % of free float market cap is still in line with historical average 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Feb-24 Aug-24 Feb-25 Aug-25 A share total margin financing balance (USD mn) Margin financing balance as % of free float mkt cap (RHS) Margin financing as a % of A share daily turnover is still below peak level in 2020, and much lower than 2015 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of August 18, 2025 M Structural Reforms Are Still Needed to Rebalance the Economy China's fiscal system incentivizes overbuilding and overcapacity with heavy reliance on indirect taxes Official statistics mechanism prioritizes investment and output, and officials are promoted on those metrics Reform fiscal system Realign macro targets Revamp official performance evaluations China's macro targets have been predominantly production-based, with insufficient attention to household consumption and social welfare. Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs Meeting The 15th Five-Year Plan One signal to watch: Whether "consumption as a percentage of GDP" becomes a core policy metric Morgan Stanley Research 11 Source: Morgan Stanley Research. M "5R" Reflation Strategy: Incremental Progress on Rebalancing | Expected Progress by End-2025 | Policy Measures | Best Scenario | | --- | --- | --- | | Reflation | • 1.6ppt of GDP widening in the augmented fiscal deficit in | • A consumption-focused Rmb10trn fiscal package over the | | | 2025 | next two years | | (20-25%) | • PBoC cut policy rate by 10bp and RRR by 50bp. We expect | • More meaningful monetary easing measures to lower | | | another 15-20bp policy rate cut and 50bp RRR cut in 2H25. | elevated real interest rates | | | • Consumption support: consumer goods trade-in; wage hike | • Meaningful rise in social welfare spending to unleash | | | for civil servants. | elevated household savings极速 for consumption | | Rebalancing | • Social welfare: national fertility subsidies; free pre-school | • Launch of "Structural Reform 2.0" to reform supply-centric | | (25-30%) | education. | incentives and curb inefficient manufacturing capacity | | | • Anti-involution: current measures mainly center around | | | | capacity consolidation and verbal guidance | | | | • A 5-year Rmb10trn local govt. debt swap program | • Rmb3-4trn central government/quasi-fiscal funding to help | | Restructuring | | digest housing inventory | | | • Wider govt. bond usage for land and housing inventory | • A comprehensive LGFV debt resolution plan to evenly | | (60-80%) | buyback | share the burden among central government, local | | | • Rmb300bn in PBoC relending for converting housing | governments, PBoC and banks | | | inventory to social housing | | | Reform | | • SOE reforms to improve public sector productivity | | | • Possibly some modest stock market and fiscal reform | • Fiscal and tax reforms revamp local government | | (25%) | | incentives and improve the efficiency of resource | | | | allocation | | | • President Xi held a symposium with private firms, with Jack | | | | Ma included. | • Clearer signals to end the regulatory reset since 2021 | | Re