8 September 2025 | 4:25PM EDT Global Views: Still Softening 1. The August employment report confirms that the US labor market has softened materially. Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to just 22k, although our broader estimate of underlying trend job growth—which is based on moving averages of both the establishment and household survey—edged up to 41k because of stronger household employment. We are penciling in an upward revision to the August payroll estimate next month, as seen in 12 of the past 15 Septemb ...