[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series 137 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025. Latest sector pecking order: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel> lithium > thermal coal. Production – According to Mysteel, from 4th to 10th Sep 2025, China total aluminum production was 851kt, flat WoW, +2% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar, and aluminum billet production was 361kt, flat WoW, +6% YoY and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China aluminum production was 31.1mnt, +2.9% YoY, and aluminum billet production was 12.6mnt, +5.7% YoY. Inventory – According to Mysteel, China aluminum ingot + billet total inventory stood at 914kt on 11th Sep, -1% WoW, -5% YoY, and -7% YoY on the lunar calendar, of which total social/producers' inventory stood at 759/155kt, -1%/-2% WoW, -11%/+43% YoY, and -11%/+20% YoY on the lunar calendar. For aluminum ingot, total inventory was 686kt on 11th Sep, -1% WoW, -11% YoY, and -10% YoY on the lunar calendar. For aluminum billet, total inventory was 228kt on 11th Sep, -2% WoW, +21% YoY, and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar. Apparent consumption – Based on our calculations, during the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025, China overall aluminum apparent consumption was 895kt, +3% WoW, -1% YoY, and +9% YoY on the lunar calendar. China aluminum ingot/billet apparent consumption was 911kt/345kt, respectively, +2%/+3% WoW, -2%/+8% YoY, and +5%/+18% YoY on the lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China overall aluminum apparent consumption was 32.1mnt, +4.6% YoY, and China aluminum ingot/billet apparent consumption was +4.1%/+7.3% YoY. Takeaways – We believe the aluminum ingot + billet inventory data is more representative to calculate overall aluminum demand as it includes the change in more types of aluminum inventory. During the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025, total aluminum inventory decreased WoW. The inventory level was lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024, but higher than 2023 on lunar calendar. Total aluminum See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are available only on Citi's portals. Jack Shang, CFAAC +852-2501-2441 jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang +852-2501-2739 anna.d.wang@citi.com Jimmy Feng +852-2501-7588 jimmy.feng@citi.com Cynthia Wu +852-2868-7813 cynthia.d.wu@citi.com apparent consumption during the week was increased WoW and the apparent consumption level is higher than the same period in 2022-24 on lunar calendar. Figure 1. China Aluminum billet+ingot total inventory CNY (kt) © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 3. China Aluminum billet social + producers' inventory CNY (kt) © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note:OIn x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 2. China Aluminum total apparent consumption CNY (kt) © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 4. China Aluminum billet apparent consumption CNY (kt) © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 6. China Aluminum ingot apparent consumption CNY (kt) © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 5. 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