ab 14 November 2025 Global Research Our latest 2026-27 China macro outlook In our baseline, we expect China's GDP growth to slow modestly to 4.5% in 2026. We expect exports to decelerate in 2026, leading to a much narrower growth contribution from net exports. Overall domestic activities are likely to stay largely resilient, with the property downturn likely to continue albeit with smaller contractions; consumption to maintain a modest, but softer pace; and infrastructure and manufacturing investment to rec ...