文章核心观点 - 股票投资中多数个股长期收益不佳，但部分提供关键产品和服务的股票能在低风险下创造可观财富，如Carlisle Companies、Nasdaq和West Pharmaceutical Services [8][10][50] 股票市场整体情况 - 1925 - 2023年CRSP数据库中51.6%的上市普通股累计回报为负，17只股票累计回报超500万%，Altria Group最高达2.65亿% [8] - 1926年以来仅4%的公司贡献股市全部财富增长，58%的股票表现不如1月期国债 [26] 高累计回报股票 | 公司名称 | 首次回报日期 | 最后回报日期 | 年数 | 每美元累计总财富 | 累计复合回报率(%) | 年化复合回报率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ALTRIA GROUP INC | 31 Dec - 25 | 29 Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 2,655,290 | 265528900.62% | 16.29% | | VULCAN MATERIALS CO | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 393,492 | 39349084.13% | 14.05% | | KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN | 31·Dec·25 | 13·Dec·21 | 95.95 | 361,757 | 36175578.11% | 14.27% | | GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP. | 28 - Jan - 26 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 97.92 | 220,850 | 22084880.36% | 13.39% | | boeing co | 5 - Sep - 34 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 89.32 | 212,206 | 21220526.33% | 14.72% | | INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHS COR | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 175,437 | 17543644.18% | 13.11% | | EATON CORP PLC | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 151,173 | 15117167.57% | 12.94% | | S & P GLOBAL INC | 14·Feb·29 | 29 · Dec - 23 | 94.87 | 128,787 | 12878643.34% | 13.20% | | COCA COLA CO | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 123,724 | 12872265.06% | 12.71% | | PEPSICO INC | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 86,360 | 8635937.80% | 12.30% | | ABBOTT LABORATORIES | 1 - Mar - 37 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 86.83 | 78,038 | 7803730.36% | 13.85% | | UNIVERSAL CORP | 11 - Nov - 27 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 96.13 | 70,318 | 7031700.72% | 12.31% | | DEERE & CO | 29 - Jun - 33 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 90.50 | 69,886 | 6988538.63% | 13.12% | | HERSHEY CO | 1 - Dec - 27 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 96.08 | 69.099 | 6909822.15% | 12.30% | | WYETH | 29 - Apr - 26 | 15 - Oct - 09 | 83.47 | 57,024 | 5702341.59% | 14.02% | | JOHNSON & JOHNSON | 25 - Sep - 44 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 79.26 | 54,281 | 5427968.94% | 14.75% | | ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND CO | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 51,811 | 5181049.17% | 11.71% | | C V S HEALTH CORP | 27 - Sep - 28 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 95.26 | 46,939 | 4693845.60% | 11.95% | | U S T INC | 31 - Dec - 25 | 5 - Jan - 09 | 83.02 | 43,963 | 4396203.50% | 13.74% | | EXXON MOBIL CORP | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 40,273 | 4027183.13% | 11.43% | | NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP | 10 - Dec - 51 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 72.05 | 39,495 | 3949426.66% | 15.82% | | TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 39,238 | 3923693.49% | 11.40% | | F IM C CORS | 22 - Apr - 31 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 92.69 | 37,001 | 3699995.48% | 12.02% | | CATERPILLAR INC | 2 - Dec - 29 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 94.08 | 36,903 | 3690210.17% | 11.83% | | BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO | 8 - Sep - 33 | 29 Dec - 23 | 90.31 | 34,867 | 3486607.85% | 12.28% | | TOOTSIE ROLL INDS INC | 31 - Dec - 25 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 98.00 | 34,401 | 3440011.10% | 11.25% | | PFIZER INC | 17·Jan - 44 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 79.95 | 28,990 | 2898900.69% | 13.71% | | KROGER CO | 26 - Jan - 28 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 95.93 | 28,345 | 2834362.61% | 11.28% | | WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE INC. | 15 ·Feb - 34 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 89.87 | 27,053 | 2705196.76% | 12.03% | | EMERSON ELECTRIC CO | 5 - Sep - 44 | 29 - Dec - 23 | 79.32 | 24,098 | 2409682.63% | 13.57% | [4] 推荐股票分析 Carlisle Companies - 剥离业务后专注建筑产品，为商业和住宅客户提供建筑材料和防水技术，商业销售占比78% [31] - 行业有巨大长期增长潜力，公司目标市场约400亿美元，目前占比约十分之一 [32] - 受益于库存正常化、需求释放和有利天气，预计到2030年实现10%的年收入增长和5%的有机收入增长，调整后每股收益超40美元，调整后EBITDA利润率超25% [13] - 连续47年提高股息，目前股息收益率0.8%，派息率低于19%，五年复合年增长率16.3%，资产负债表评级为A [13] - 过去十年回购四分之一股份，总回报率484%，远超标普500指数 [33] - 十年平均市盈率21.0倍，分析师预计2024 - 2026年每股收益分别增长31%、13%和8%，未来1 - 2年有望实现9 - 10%的年回报率 [34][35] Nasdaq - 不仅是科技股交易所，还是领先技术平台，提供数据、分析、软件和交易服务，去年营收43亿美元 [15] - 利用人工智能等技术提升产品和运营效率，如优化订单类型和打击金融犯罪 [16][38] - 各业务板块增长潜力大，金融科技板块中期增长预期达10 - 14% [17][39] - 股息收益率1.5%，派息率32%，五年复合年增长率8.6% [18] - 混合市盈率22.9倍，略高于正常的20.1倍，预计2025 - 2026年分别增长14%和15%，给予买入评级 [41] West Pharmaceutical Services - 医疗仪器和用品制造商，在注射药物包装和递送领域领先，超70%的净销售额来自高价值产品 [21][51] - 预计长期年收入增长7 - 9%，利润率提高100个基点 [22] - 受益于注射药物需求增长和监管变化，战略投资有望推动收入增长和利润率提升 [45][53] - 过去十年股价回报率607%（不含股息），股息收益率0.3%，派息率10%，五年复合年增长率6.0%，连续30年提高股息 [47][53] - 目前混合市盈率40.5倍，略高于十年平均的38.0倍，分析师预计2025 - 2026年分别增长17%和11%，认为股价不应低于380美元，给予买入评级 [54][49]