CGN MINING(1164.HK)：POTENTIAL LOSS IN 1H25E BUT RECOVERY IN 2H25E;EXPECT A SOLID TURNAROUND IN 2026E

A recap on the new off-take agreement with parent company (2026-28): The fixed price in 2026E is set at US $94.22/lb (with 4.1% increment per year in 2027E/28E), which is way higher than the US$ 61.78/lb in 2023 (with annual increment of 3.5% in 2024/25) under the current mechanism. The fixed price proportion will be reduced to 30% from 40%, which will help reduce the mismatch between the JV's ASP and off-take pricing. Risk factors: (1) further trading loss; (2) pullback of spot uranium price; (3) lack of imp ...