One earnings miss, guidance revision, or customer decision is all that it will take.You missed Nvidia. You missed Broadcom. And now, you are looking at AppLovin (APP) —the stock that is up over 75% this year—and asking yourself: "Is this the next one?"The chart shows a steep upward trajectory. The headlines scream "AI AdTech Revolution." The valuation has ballooned to about $200 Billion.But before you chase this rocket, let’s run it through the First Principles Framework. What we find isn't a new Google. We ...