报告公司投资评级 - 维持“增持”评级 [3][5] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年上半年报告研究的具体公司营业收入929.84亿元，同比-15%，归母净利润97.88亿元，同比-17.3%，其中Q2单季度归母净利润为48.18亿元，同比+2.96%；Q2单季度除销售费用外，各项费用同比均下滑，管理费用同比-0.96%，研发费用同比-17.5%，财务费用同比-25.06% [1] - 2024上半年商品煤产量6650万吨，同比-0.9%；商品煤销量13355万吨，同比-8.9%，其中自产商品煤销量6619万吨，同比+2.1%；买断贸易煤销量6437万吨，同比-15.5%；自产商品煤单位销售成本292.88元/吨，同比+7.71元/吨，增长2.7%，材料成本同比+11.3%，人工成本同比+33.4% [2] - 2024上半年聚烯烃单吨价格6955元/吨，同比+0.8%，单吨成本5866元/吨，同比-3.1%，单吨毛利达1089元/吨，同比+241元/吨；煤化工营业成本上半年为86.24亿元，同比-7.8%，其中材料成本下降幅度为-13.1% [3] - 上调2024 - 2026年归母净利润预测至193.9/198.6/205.2亿元，对应EPS分别为1.46/1.50/1.55元 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 基本数据 - A股总股本9152.00百万股，流通A股股本9152.00百万股，A股总市值118609.93百万元，流通A股市值118609.93百万元，每股净资产11.12元，资产负债率47.97%，一年内最高/最低为13.68/7.89 [4] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|220576.86|192968.83|212555.81|219925.93|222678.65| |增长率(%)|(4.56)|(12.52)|10.15|3.47|1.25| |EBITDA(百万元)|65599.42|48337.40|49030.94|50271.02|52019.49| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|18240.54|19534.05|19387.66|19864.58|20522.95| |增长率(%)|37.33|7.09|(0.75)|2.46|3.31| |EPS(元/股)|1.38|1.47|1.46|1.50|1.55| |市盈率(P/E)|9.42|8.80|8.86|8.65|8.37| |市净率(P/B)|1.31|1.19|1.10|1.00|0.93| |市销率(P/S)|0.78|0.89|0.81|0.78|0.77| |EV/EBITDA|1.97|2.73|3.71|2.90|2.74| [7] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金(百万元)|91025.52|91542.75|98316.01|138179.83|145859.31| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|8747.38|7492.78|6677.61|7984.12|6861.12| |预付账款(百万元)|2438.16|2471.45|1118.38|2610.10|1149.95| |存货(百万元)|9350.03|8734.99|9214.17|9428.22|9372.04| |其他(百万元)|10377.82|7090.00|11951.37|12022.76|11862.12| |流动资产合计(百万元)|121938.90|117331.97|127277.54|170225.03|175104.56| |长期股权投资(百万元)|29903.56|30957.73|30957.73|30957.73|30957.73| |固定资产(百万元)|114960.25|116047.95|116043.37|117438.78|118234.19| |在建工程(百万元)|11045.42|11223.38|9223.38|7223.38|5223.38| |无形资产(百万元)|48168.14|55637.93|53995.65|52353.38|50711.10| |其他(百万元)|12120.85|15824.71|12637.13|12613.77|13230.22| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|216198.22|229691.70|222857.25|220587.04|218356.61| |资产总计(百万元)|340109.26|349359.92|350134.79|390812.07|393461.17| |短期借款(百万元)|205.45|122.60|205.40|205.40|205.40| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|25420.85|26737.86|18135.03|28470.94|18529.72| |其他(百万元)|73135.07|66257.29|60945.00|73765.85|67622.12| |流动负债合计(百万元)|98761.37|93117.74|79285.43|102442.18|86357.24| |长期借款(百万元)|39506.54|42369.25|39506.50|39506.50|39506.50| |应付债券(百万元)|12977.22|7993.02|14089.55|12308.42|11842.05| |其他(百万元)|17568.79|18057.54|17268.69|17467.27|17590.57| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|70052.55|68419.81|70864.74|69282.19|68939.13| |负债合计(百万元)|175050.74|166577.78|150150.18|171724.37|155296.37| |少数股东权益(百万元)|34294.02|38661.13|43184.91|47819.98|52608.67| |股本(百万元)|13258.66|13258.66|13258.66|13258.66|13258.66| |资本公积(百万元)|38866.07|39059.91|39059.91|39059.91|39059.91| |留存收益(百万元)|70775.85|83841.58|97412.95|111318.15|125684.22| |其他(百万元)|7863.92|7960.86|7068.18|7630.99|7553.34| |股东权益合计(百万元)|165058.52|182782.14|199984.62|219087.69|238164.80| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|340109.26|349359.92|350134.79|390812.07|393461.17| [8] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|220576.86|192968.83|212555.81|219925.93|222678.65| |营业成本(百万元)|165158.44|144595.34|161542.42|167781.49|169202.37| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|7856.73|7815.61|7571.03|7833.54|7931.59| |销售费用(百万元)|928.77|1049.52|894.99|926.03|937.62| |管理费用(百万元)|5246.41|5452.30|5055.63|5230.93|5296.40| |研发费用(百万元)|771.49|916.19|637.67|659.78|668.04| |财务费用(百万元)|3728.01|2994.93|3046.88|2913.33|2885.99| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(9017.63)|(346.10)|(550.00)|(550.00)|(550.00)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益(百万元)|5035.36|3004.65|30.00|30.00|30.00| |其他(百万元)|7703.52|(5613.05)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润(百万元)|33165.75|33099.45|33287.19|34060.83|35236.64| |营业外收入(百万元)|273.11|129.07|100.00|100.00|100.00| |营业外支出(百万元)|541.60|179.79|100.00|100.00|100.00| |利润总额(百万元)|32897.26|33048.73|33287.19|34060.83|35236.64| |所得税(百万元)|7519.33|7299.93|7436.97|7574.72|7872.70| |净利润(百万元)|25377.93|25748.80|25850.22|26486.10|27363.93| |少数股东损益(百万元)|7137.40|6214.75|6462.55|6621.53|6840.98| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|18240.54|19534.05|19387.66|19864.58|20522.95| |每股收益（元）|1.38|1.47|1.46|1.50|1.55| [8] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入增长率| -4.56%| -12.52%|10.15%|3.47%|1.25%| |营业利润增长率|29.99%| -0.20%|0.57%|2.32%|3.45%| |归属于母公司净利润增长率|37.33%|7.09%| -0.75%|2.46%|3.31%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|25.12%|25.07%|24.00%|23.71%|24.02%| |净利率|8.27%|10.12%|9.12%|9.03%|9.22%| |ROE|13.95%|13.55%|12.36%|11.60%|11.06%| |ROIC|18.23%|19.29%|19.11%|17.23%|20.42%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|51.47%|47.68%|42.88%|43.94%|39.47%| |净负债率| -4.34%| -10.57%| -10.27%| -28.07%| -28.94%| |流动比率|1.18|1.22|1.61|1.66|2.03| |速动比率|1.09|1.13|1.49|1.57|1.92| |营运