报告公司投资评级 - 6个月评级为增持（调低评级） [1] 报告的核心观点 - 岳阳林纸2024年半年报显示业绩不佳，24H1收入35.7亿同比-23.9%，归母净利润-0.5亿同比-147.2%，扣非归母-0.5亿同比-182.2%；业绩下滑因文化纸需求疲弱、子公司林木减值、股权变动及政府补助减少等；公司聚焦主业优化结构，推进技改项目并回购股份；基于业绩表现及行业情况调整盈利预测，预计24 - 26年归母净利润分别为0.5/3.4/5.4亿元（前值3.8/5.0/6.0亿元），对应PE分别为132/19/12X [1][2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|9,781.49|8,640.73|8,910.32|10,581.90|12,073.95| |增长率(%)|24.79|(11.66)|3.12|18.76|14.10| |EBITDA(百万元)|1,444.74|781.91|756.25|1,150.51|1,388.08| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|615.56|(237.95)|49.52|342.61|537.49| |增长率(%)|106.51|(138.66)|120.81|591.81|56.88| |EPS(元/股)|0.35|(0.13)|0.03|0.19|0.30| |市盈率(P/E)|10.58|(27.38)|131.57|19.02|12.12| |市净率(P/B)|0.71|0.75|0.75|0.73|0.70| |市销率(P/S)|0.67|0.75|0.73|0.62|0.54| |EV/EBITDA|8.80|17.52|12.38|7.84|4.98| [3] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金(百万元)|918.27|788.46|891.03|1,481.47|2,267.33| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|746.58|698.44|582.27|1,091.97|779.80| |预付账款(百万元)|416.90|227.04|264.40|352.12|370.91| |存货(百万元)|5,226.12|4,879.70|5,347.87|3,858.38|3,064.01| |流动资产合计(百万元)|8,741.92|7,759.78|9,492.62|10,684.88|9,522.58| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|6,163.22|6,685.33|6,478.27|6,534.45|6,504.08| |资产总计(百万元)|16,620.72|15,967.80|15,970.88|17,219.33|16,026.66| |流动负债合计(百万元)|4,786.53|5,268.75|6,114.79|7,149.19|5,821.91| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|2,201.80|1,652.18|1,151.27|1,143.80|887.75| |负债合计(百万元)|7,379.76|7,238.11|7,266.06|8,292.98|6,709.66| |股东权益合计(百万元)|9,240.96|8,729.69|8,704.82|8,926.34|9,317.00| [4] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|9,781.49|8,640.73|8,910.32|10,581.90|12,073.95| |营业成本(百万元)|8,274.38|7,903.99|8,019.29|9,206.25|10,383.59| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|61.79|47.87|44.55|50.79|57.35| |销售费用(百万元)|112.01|108.94|89.10|126.98|138.85| |管理费用(百万元)|293.57|240.42|178.21|211.64|241.48| |研发费用(百万元)|302.25|261.94|267.31|306.88|345.31| |财务费用(百万元)|167.18|158.06|152.63|153.18|127.45| |营业利润(百万元)|735.11|36.63|132.27|497.20|750.72| |利润总额(百万元)|730.89|(267.93)|58.35|403.82|631.70| |净利润(百万元)|621.14|(234.10)|49.60|343.25|536.94| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|615.56|(237.95)|49.52|342.61|537.49| |每股收益(元)|0.35|(0.13)|0.03|0.19|0.30| [4] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润(百万元)|621.14|(234.10)|49.52|342.61|537.49| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|759.76|1,055.90|1,189.73|967.30|2,817.39| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(258.56)|(884.25)|(434.97)|(425.46)|(439.20)| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|(626.64)|(97.95)|(652.19)|48.60|(1,592.32)| |现金净增加额(百万元)|(125.43)|73.71|102.57|590.43|785.87| [5] 主要财务比率 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入增长率(%)|24.79| - 11.66|3.12|18.76|14.10| |营业利润增长率(%)|116.65| - 95.02|261.11|275.90|50.99| |归属于母公司净利润增长率(%)|106.51| - 138.66|120.81|591.81|56.88| |毛利率(%)|15.41|8.53|10.00|13.00|14.00| |净利率(%)|6.29| - 2.75|0.56|3.24|4.45| |资产负债率(%)|44.40|45.33|45.50|48.16|41.87| |净负债率(%)|37.92|45.85|39.92|35.94|11.84| |流动比率|2.02|1.66|1.55|1.49|1.64| |速动比率|1.01|0.79|0.68|0.95|1.11| |应收账款周转率|13.25|11.96|13.91|12.64|12.90| |存货周转率|1.85|1.71|1.74|2.30|3.49| |总资产周转率|0.59|0.53|0.56|0.64|0.73| |每股收益(元)|0.35| - 0.13|0.03|0.19|0.30| |每股经营现金流(元)|0.43|0.60|0.67|0.55|1.60| |每股净资产(元)|5.21|4.92|4.90|5.03|5.25| |市盈率(P/E)|10.58| - 27.38|131.57|19.02|12.12| |市净率(P/B)|0.71|0.75|0.75|0.73|0.70| |EV/EBITDA|8.80|17.52|12.38|7.84|4.98| |EV/EBIT|12.21|35.12|26.48|12.41|7.34| [6]