报告公司投资评级 - 6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [4] 报告的核心观点 - 公司2024H1营收203.29亿元同比+3.95%，归母净利润6.57亿元同比+16.25%，二季度单季营收和归母净利润同比环比均增长，军民机任务齐头并进 [1] - 2024上半年公司毛利率5.89%同比-0.63pct，净利率3.23%同比+0.34pct，主营业务盈利能力较稳定，降本增效成效显露，积极备产备货，下游订单需求稳定，全年业绩可期 [1][2] - 截至24年8月国内9架C919交付客户，东航C919航班商运亮眼，国航、南航各更新100架订单，未来C919批产及交付速度有望提升，公司民机业绩有望受益 [2] - 公司作为我国大中型飞机龙头企业，有望受益国防装备发展和国产大飞机需求，2024 - 2026年营业收入预计464.67/536.7/622.84亿元，归母净利润下调为11.49/14.54/17.99亿元，对应PE分别为58/46/37x，维持“买入”评级 [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|37,660.03|40,301.23|46,467.32|53,669.76|62,283.75| |增长率(%)|15.17|7.01|15.30|15.50|16.05| |EBITDA(百万元)|1,923.36|2,304.63|2,483.28|2,784.37|3,118.32| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|523.35|860.97|1,148.75|1,454.36|1,798.81| |增长率(%)|(19.84)|64.51|33.42|26.60|23.68| |EPS(元/股)|0.19|0.31|0.41|0.52|0.65| |市盈率(P/E)|127.62|77.57|58.14|45.92|37.13| |市净率(P/B)|4.14|3.42|3.23|3.02|2.79| |市销率(P/S)|1.77|1.66|1.44|1.24|1.07| |EV/EBITDA|22.77|18.03|27.51|13.80|19.22| [3] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|26,351.81|19,300.46|0.00|27,312.52|5,765.36| |应收票据及应收账款|7,898.09|17,973.78|13,004.43|22,775.40|18,747.10| |预付账款|3,703.10|2,221.66|8,544.83|2,917.94|10,229.70| |存货|26,249.21|23,433.32|34,530.65|35,981.52|44,668.00| |流动资产合计|65,131.20|63,759.60|59,508.23|93,240.81|83,816.50| |非流动资产合计|14,865.77|15,249.60|13,398.64|12,325.62|11,247.04| |资产总计|82,173.55|80,920.78|72,906.87|105,566.43|95,063.54| |流动负债合计|41,204.20|44,085.53|53,864.64|85,379.27|73,061.08| |非流动负债合计|1,972.64|(1,512.24)|(1,623.69)|(1,950.00)|(1,950.00)| |负债合计|66,039.34|61,375.98|52,240.95|83,429.27|71,111.08| |股东权益合计|16,134.21|19,544.80|20,665.92|22,137.16|23,952.46| |负债和股东权益总计|82,173.55|80,920.78|72,906.87|105,566.43|95,063.54| [6] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|37,660.03|40,301.23|46,467.32|53,669.76|62,283.75| |营业成本|35,003.75|37,531.73|42,675.59|49,134.66|56,883.75| |营业税金及附加|487.28|306.49|604.08|697.71|809.69| |销售费用|436.47|474.41|557.61|644.04|747.41| |管理费用|895.04|910.10|1,022.28|1,180.73|1,339.10| |研发费用|308.86|243.78|302.04|375.69|498.27| |财务费用|(121.10)|(253.87)|(69.73)|(126.37)|(192.34)| |营业利润|582.92|1,022.83|1,322.09|1,679.81|2,079.74| |利润总额|607.92|1,021.27|1,337.09|1,692.81|2,093.74| |所得税|84.57|160.30|187.19|236.99|293.12| |净利润|523.35|860.97|1,149.90|1,455.82|1,800.61| |归属于母公司净利润|523.35|860.97|1,148.75|1,454.36|1,798.81| |每股收益（元）|0.19|0.31|0.41|0.52|0.65| [6] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|523.35|860.97|1,148.75|1,454.36|1,798.81| |折旧摊销|1,213.20|1,160.32|1,150.92|1,150.92|1,150.92| |财务费用|156.41|53.80|(69.73)|(126.37)|(192.34)| |投资损失|85.88|(43.50)|20.00|19.63|51.84| |营运资金变动|27,074.91|(11,016.50)|(23,779.77)|27,191.45|(24,544.69)| |经营活动现金流|29,287.21|(5,514.63)|(21,502.06)|29,687.60|(21,739.96)| |投资活动现金流|(822.95)|(1,127.73)|(40.37)|(11.92)|(39.23)| |筹资活动现金流|(8,704.61)|(410.36)|2,241.96|(2,363.16)|232.03| |现金净增加额|19,759.66|(7,052.72)|(19,300.46)|27,312.52|(21,547.16)| [7]