报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”投资评级 [4][7] 报告的核心观点 - 2024H1公司营收374.41亿元同比+3.15%，归母净利润58.82亿元同比-2.65%，扣非归母净利润58.22亿元同比-1.13% [1] - 净利润同比下降或受子公司三门核电和中核汇能影响，三门核电收入和净利润同比下降因上年主泵赔款高基数和24年计提乏燃料处置金，中核汇能受西北部分省份限电和电价策略调整影响 [2] - 2024H1财务费用率同比-1.45pct，财务费用同比-10.80%，主要因汇率波动汇兑收益增加和加强资金精益管理利息支出减少 [3] - 截至2024年6月公司控股在运25台核电机组装机2375.0万千瓦，在建及核准待建15台装机1756.5万千瓦，占在运装机73.96%；2024M8获核准江苏徐圩核能供热发电厂一期工程，采用创新运行模式，建成后将为连云港石化产业基地供蒸汽，引领能源化工行业绿色低碳转型 [4] - 预计公司2024 - 2026年归母净利润为112、123、133亿元，同比+5.8%、+9.3%、+8.3%，对应PE分别为17、16、15倍 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|71,285.60|74,957.18|80,430.50|86,953.74|92,358.38| |增长率(%)|14.30|5.15|7.30|8.11|6.22| |EBITDA(百万元)|42,902.31|45,419.25|49,257.35|53,778.62|58,333.26| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|9,009.83|10,623.83|11,235.95|12,281.84|13,298.70| |增长率(%)|12.09|17.91|5.76|9.31|8.28| |EPS(元/股)|0.48|0.56|0.60|0.65|0.70| |市盈率(P/E)|21.40|18.15|17.16|15.70|14.50| |市净率(P/B)|2.18|2.12|1.91|1.77|1.64| |市销率(P/S)|2.70|2.57|2.40|2.22|2.09| |EV/EBITDA|9.25|10.85|11.38|10.80|10.17|[5] 基本数据 - A股总股本18,883.28百万股，流通A股股本18,883.28百万股，A股总市值192,798.34百万元，流通A股市值192,798.34百万元，每股净资产4.89元，资产负债率71.22%，一年内最高/最低12.29/6.87 [6] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|16,161.64|9,773.82|18,411.61|16,115.81|25,300.53| |应收票据及应收账款|17,363.65|21,414.11|17,892.14|24,602.00|21,414.90| |预付账款|2,793.90|4,845.16|3,891.91|4,969.78|4,591.55| |存货|24,809.23|26,422.61|27,777.64|31,076.48|31,162.36| |其他|4,450.77|5,532.10|4,242.53|6,317.49|4,631.85| |流动资产合计|65,579.20|67,987.80|72,215.84|83,081.57|87,101.19| |长期股权投资|5,684.59|7,579.96|7,579.96|7,579.96|7,579.96| |固定资产|269,031.65|276,922.38|304,384.44|329,387.85|351,971.65| |在建工程|101,500.25|153,574.84|152,761.12|152,110.15|151,589.37| |无形资产|3,063.27|3,803.38|3,500.00|3,196.63|2,893.25| |其他|19,579.82|29,146.35|29,010.10|28,873.85|28,737.59| |非流动资产合计|398,859.59|471,026.92|497,235.63|521,148.43|542,771.83| |资产总计|464,619.98|539,267.25|569,451.47|604,230.00|629,873.02| |短期借款|15,364.52|19,864.35|22,314.35|17,245.49|13,866.24| |应付票据及应付账款|20,538.77|22,407.57|21,323.91|26,184.94|24,693.32| |其他|37,938.64|55,080.84|51,683.98|55,905.44|52,765.18| |流动负债合计|73,841.93|97,352.77|95,322.24|99,335.87|91,324.74| |长期借款|208,511.27|244,853.36|261,572.11|277,822.11|295,759.61| |应付债券|8,999.29|8,401.73|8,401.73|8,401.73|8,401.73| |其他|25,303.33|25,616.18|25,616.18|25,616.18|25,616.18| |非流动负债合计|242,813.88|278,871.27|295,590.02|311,840.02|329,777.52| |负债合计|316,750.53|376,469.25|390,912.26|411,175.89|421,102.26| |少数股东权益|59,229.10|71,848.38|77,823.86|84,355.57|91,428.06| |股本|18,860.70|18,883.28|18,883.28|18,883.28|18,883.28| |资本公积|27,304.83|27,336.44|27,336.44|27,336.44|27,336.44| |留存收益|36,231.13|43,410.94|50,714.31|58,697.50|67,341.66| |其他|6,243.68|1,318.95|3,781.32|3,781.32|3,781.32| |股东权益合计|147,869.44|162,798.00|178,539.21|193,054.11|208,770.76| |负债和股东权益总计|464,619.98|539,267.25|569,451.47|604,230.00|629,873.02|[10] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|71,285.60|74,957.18|80,430.50|86,953.74|92,358.38| |营业成本|38,756.96|41,509.67|44,007.97|47,809.22|50,507.12| |营业税金及附加|872.20|1,031.67|1,107.00|1,196.78|1,271.17| |销售费用|77.72|115.11|123.51|133.53|138.54| |管理费用|4,618.54|3,828.24|4,021.52|4,304.21|4,571.74| |研发费用|1,397.92|1,383.79|1,407.53|1,521.69|1,616.27| |财务费用|8,144.51|7,301.74|7,586.71|7,972.72|8,289.44| |资产/信用减值损失|(160.28)|(291.95)|(160.00)|(160.00)|(160.00)| |公允价值变动收益|0.05|0.16|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|275.24|382.07|382.07|382.07|382.07| |其他|(2,342.44)|(2,949.19)|(1,440.34)|(1,852.63)|(2,091.50)| |营业利润|19,645.18|22,645.88|23,838.66|26,090.30|28,277.68| |营业外收入|43.66|459.10|459.10|459.10|459.10| |营业外支出|119.06|123.82|121.44|122.63|122.04| |利润总额|19,569.77|22,981.16|24,176.33|26,426.77|28,614.75| |所得税|3,247.07|3,570.54|3,747.33|4,096.15|4,435.29| |净利润|16,322.71|19,410.62|20,429.00|22,330.62|24,179.46| |少数股东损益|7,312.88|8,786.79|9,193.05|10,048.78|10,880.76| |归属于母公司净利润|9,009.83|10,623.83|11,235.95|12,281.84|13,298.70| |每股收益（元）|0.48|0.56|0.60|0.65|0.70|[10] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|14.30%|5.15%|7.30%|8.11%|6.22%| |营业利润|19.24%|15.27%|5.27%|9.45%|8.38%| |归属于母公司净利润|12.09%|17.91%|5.76%|9.31%|8.28%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|45.63%|44.62%|45.28%|45.02%|45.31%| |净利率|12.64%|14.17%|13.97%|14.12%|14.40%| |ROE|10.16%|11.68%|11.16%|11.30%|11.33%| |ROIC|7.03%|6.79%|6.01%|6.14%|6.22%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|68.17%|69.81%|68.65%|68.05%|66.86%| |净负债率|162.40%|186.03%|175.53%|169.31%|159.14%| |流动比率|0.89|0.70|0.76|0.84|0