报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [3][4] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年前三季度公司归母净利润预计延续高增长，看好产能释放提升盈利能力 [1] - 植提业务持续向好，公司盈利能力显著提升，主营业务延续高增长态势 [2] - 植提市场持续扩容，公司重点夯实产能优势，为增长奠定基础 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 业绩预告 - 2024年前三季度预计归母净利润约8180.14万元 - 10225.17万元，同比增长100% - 150%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润8077.14万元 – 10122.17万元，同比增长2132.80% - 2698.11% [1] 业务发展 - 2024年前三季度通过加大研发投入等措施提升主营业务市场占有率，主营业务预计营业收入较去年同期增长约30%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增长100% - 150%，扣除非经常性损益后净利润较上年同期增长约2132.80% - 2698.11% [2] 行业与产能 - 消费者对健康关注上升，预计2020 - 2027年全球植物提取物市场CAGR达7.9%，2027年市场规模将达324.6亿美元 [3] - 甜叶菊专业提取工厂建设顺利，新建合成生物车间预计9月投产；工业大麻提取工厂为全美最大，是美国印第安纳州示范项目，为海外业务和品牌打造提供产能基础 [3] 盈利预测 - 预计公司24 - 26年营收为19.12/24.09/29.15亿元，归母净利润为1.93/2.63/3.46亿元，同比增长134%/36%/31% [3] 财务数据 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|1,400.74|1,493.93|1,912.23|2,409.41|2,915.39| |增长率(%)|32.99|6.65|28.00|26.00|21.00| |EBITDA(百万元)|410.58|339.97|414.46|553.88|681.08| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|178.75|82.51|193.19|263.31|345.73| |增长率(%)|50.92|(53.84)|134.14|36.30|31.30| |EPS(元/股)|0.24|0.11|0.26|0.35|0.47| |市盈率(P/E)|28.14|60.97|26.04|19.11|14.55| |市净率(P/B)|1.64|1.61|1.59|1.30|1.31| |市销率(P/S)|3.59|3.37|2.63|2.09|1.73| |EV/EBITDA|15.98|16.46|11.80|10.51|7.84|[3] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|551.74|130.45|191.22|240.94|291.54| |应收票据及应收账款|494.34|556.00|547.69|925.31|912.94| |预付账款|145.16|30.44|212.28|115.66|247.32| |存货|925.37|971.30|990.35|1,386.60|1,374.47| |其他|48.67|113.34|564.63|1,338.21|852.22| |流动资产合计|2,165.28|1,801.54|2,506.17|4,006.72|3,678.48| |长期股权投资|1.85|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|1,057.66|1,021.10|1,347.43|1,732.36|1,844.31| |在建工程|2.04|277.38|228.69|115.74|63.15| |无形资产|121.40|129.36|141.81|148.29|155.17| |其他|624.29|761.95|597.42|655.96|666.29| |非流动资产合计|1,807.24|2,189.80|2,315.34|2,652.35|2,728.91| |资产总计|4,455.36|4,625.58|4,821.52|6,659.08|6,407.40| |短期借款|420.86|372.35|427.72|1,322.02|994.75| |应付票据及应付账款|377.16|448.59|683.13|743.04|982.63| |其他|253.52|375.58|236.81|294.38|298.30| |流动负债合计|1,051.54|1,196.52|1,347.66|2,359.44|2,275.68| |长期借款|93.08|60.00|60.00|166.01|60.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|195.27|162.39|172.22|176.63|170.41| |非流动负债合计|288.35|222.39|232.22|342.63|230.41| |负债合计|1,342.11|1,421.12|1,579.88|2,702.07|2,506.10| |少数股东权益|48.50|72.80|78.56|79.29|73.07| |股本|742.08|741.99|741.99|741.99|741.99| |资本公积|1,458.41|1,476.64|1,478.54|2,185.25|2,185.25| |留存收益|906.96|915.26|967.15|973.67|917.68| |其他|(42.70)|(2.24)|(24.61)|(23.18)|(16.67)| |股东权益合计|3,113.25|3,204.46|3,241.63|3,957.00|3,901.30| |负债和股东权益总计|4,455.36|4,625.58|4,821.52|6,659.08|6,407.40|[6] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|1,400.74|1,493.93|1,912.23|2,409.41|2,915.39| |营业成本|969.33|1,129.19|1,358.07|1,711.40|2,070.80| |营业税金及附加|5.82|10.44|10.35|10.60|15.78| |销售费用|44.94|54.02|61.57|79.51|81.63| |管理费用|104.39|139.75|137.68|144.56|160.35| |研发费用|44.26|48.39|57.37|62.64|69.97| |财务费用|7.86|24.43|23.18|47.86|59.86| |资产/信用减值损失|(26.43)|(38.63)|(18.50)|(17.00)|(15.00)| |公允价值变动收益|36.81|45.35|(0.37)|0.19|0.00| |投资净收益|2.78|4.83|3.30|4.00|4.00| |其他|(42.71)|(42.16)|0.00|(0.00)|(0.00)| |营业利润|253.69|118.32|248.44|340.01|446.00| |营业外收入|0.61|0.23|1.00|0.61|0.61| |营业外支出|15.97|2.19|1.00|2.00|2.00| |利润总额|238.34|116.36|248.44|338.62|444.62| |所得税|50.04|18.02|33.79|46.05|60.47| |净利润|188.30|98.35|214.65|292.57|384.15| |少数股东损益|9.55|15.84|21.47|29.26|38.41| |归属于母公司净利润|178.75|82.51|193.19|263.31|345.73| |每股收益（元）|0.24|0.11|0.26|0.35|0.47|[6] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|188.30|98.35|193.19|263.31|345.73| |折旧摊销|73.76|87.92|105.84|132.01|145.22| |财务费用|27.88|30.92|23.18|47.86|59.86| |投资损失|(2.78)|(4.83)|(3.30)|(4.00)|(4.00)| |营运资金变动|(734.53)|(277.70)|392.44|(1,425.47)|586.41| |其它|188.94|181.93|21.09|29.44|38.41| |经营活动现金流|(258.42)|116.59|732.44|(956.83)|1,171.64| |资本支出|137.00|363.61|386.09|406.08|217.67| |长期投资|0.68|(1.85)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(419.43)|(825.76)|(777.96)|(812.93)|(425.12)| |投资活动现金流|(281.75)|(464.00)|(391.87)|(406.85)|(207.45)| |债权融资|(55.35)|48.53|(102.32)|990.61|(473.73)| |股权融资|943.15|(88.20)|(177.48)|422.80|(439.85)| |其他|107.78|(21.81)|0.00|(0.00)|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流|995.57|(61.47)|(279.80)|1,413.41|(913.59)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|455.40|(408.88)|60.77|49.72|50.60|[7]