报告公司投资评级 - 行业为家用电器/小家电，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [4] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年预计实现收入224.3亿元，同比+5.27%；预计实现归母净利润22.3 - 22.6亿元，同比+2.3% - 3.68%；预计实现扣非归母净利润20.5 - 20.8亿元，同比+2.78% - 4.29% [1] - 内销营业收入同比略有下降，但核心品类线上、线下市场占有率持续提升；外销订单较同期增长明显，营业收入取得较好增长 [2] - 公司采取积极措施，持续提高营销效率并严格控制各项费用支出 [2] - 公司总经理张国华因个人原因辞职，财务总监徐波代行总经理职务 [2] - 内销增长基本稳定，外销增加与SEB的关联交易金额，全年有望增长，维持“买入”评级 [3] 相关目录总结 基本数据 - A股总股本801.36百万股，流通A股股本799.92百万股，A股总市值42,576.24百万元，流通A股市值42,499.61百万元 [5] - 每股净资产7.00元，资产负债率52.87%，一年内最高/最低股价为64.30/45.70元 [5] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|20,170.53|21,303.95|22,427.02|23,616.42|24,568.44| |增长率(%)|(6.55)|5.62|5.27|5.30|4.03| |EBITDA(百万元)|2,758.75|2,973.64|2,575.64|2,755.49|2,981.17| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|2,067.66|2,179.80|2,245.31|2,395.18|2,580.28| |增长率(%)|6.36|5.42|3.01|6.68|7.73| |EPS(元/股)|2.58|2.72|2.80|2.99|3.22| |市盈率(P/E)|20.59|19.53|18.96|17.78|16.50| |市净率(P/B)|6.05|6.71|6.82|7.68|8.32| |市销率(P/S)|2.11|2.00|1.90|1.80|1.73| |EV/EBITDA|12.48|12.63|14.57|13.76|12.68| [9] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|3,563.14|3,548.28|3,647.62|3,151.79|3,345.93| |应收票据及应收账款|1,953.84|2,873.56|1,861.03|2,862.25|1,778.46| |预付账款|339.61|193.17|460.21|254.85|436.84| |存货|2,494.92|2,262.68|2,417.07|2,009.71|2,067.42| |流动资产合计|9,518.37|10,036.69|9,850.36|9,342.04|8,695.99| |长期股权投资|62.20|61.68|61.68|61.68|61.68| |固定资产|1,303.08|1,243.21|1,113.20|983.20|853.19| |在建工程|12.01|26.86|26.86|26.86|26.86| |无形资产|440.02|428.98|402.62|376.25|349.89| |非流动资产合计|3,434.28|3,070.01|2,881.35|2,849.08|2,620.74| |资产总计|12,952.66|13,106.70|12,731.71|12,191.12|11,316.74| |短期借款|0.00|199.74|150.00|100.00|80.00| |应付票据及应付账款|3,693.13|4,440.61|3,997.52|4,364.18|3,790.09| |流动负债合计|4,561.17|5,661.79|6,272.18|6,509.50|6,079.98| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |非流动负债合计|164.86|200.38|179.10|100.00|80.00| |负债合计|5,879.97|6,724.87|6,451.28|6,609.50|6,159.98| |少数股东权益|36.61|36.50|39.72|40.27|40.55| |股本|808.65|806.71|801.36|801.36|801.36| |资本公积|125.37|173.11|165.03|165.03|165.03| |留存收益|6,222.24|5,872.75|5,522.69|4,866.89|4,498.99| |股东权益合计|7,072.69|6,381.83|6,280.43|5,581.61|5,156.75| |负债和股东权益总计|12,952.66|13,106.70|12,731.71|12,191.12|11,316.74| [10] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|20,170.53|21,303.95|22,427.02|23,616.42|24,568.44| |营业成本|14,969.33|15,700.13|16,847.10|17,707.11|18,347.11| |营业税金及附加|130.69|142.25|143.53|151.15|157.24| |销售费用|2,156.30|2,297.85|2,253.92|2,349.83|2,419.99| |管理费用|374.06|393.60|403.69|413.29|417.66| |研发费用|416.26|431.29|448.54|472.33|491.37| |财务费用|(97.42)|(67.63)|(44.85)|(47.23)|(49.14)| |资产/信用减值损失|23.17|(19.95)|1.39|5.77|2.40| |公允价值变动收益|1.38|1.14|4.03|6.42|6.72| |投资净收益|54.05|48.81|90.00|80.00|90.00| |营业利润|2,535.24|2,681.32|2,716.37|2,898.99|3,127.01| |营业外收入|14.44|15.27|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业外支出|4.46|11.87|0.00|0.00|0.00| |利润总额|2,545.21|2,684.72|2,763.37|2,947.99|3,176.01| |所得税|479.03|505.30|520.07|554.81|597.72| |净利润|2,066.18|2,179.42|2,243.31|2,393.18|2,578.28| |少数股东损益|(1.48)|(0.38)|(2.00)|(2.00)|(2.00)| |归属于母公司净利润|2,067.66|2,179.80|2,245.31|2,395.18|2,580.28| |每股收益（元）|2.58|2.72|2.80|2.99|3.22| [10] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营运资金变动|1,596.57|534.96|(178.09)|27.76|448.65| |长期投资|(3.40)|(0.52)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|(3,447.86)|(2,516.77)|(2,344.71)|(3,091.99)|(3,003.14)| |净利润|2,066.18|2,179.42|2,245.31|2,395.18|2,580.28| |折旧摊销|151.82|159.84|156.37|156.37|156.37| |财务费用|(12.25)|(10.41)|(44.85)|(47.23)|(49.14)| |投资损失|(53.91)|(48.82)|(90.00)|(80.00)|(90.00)| |其它|(588.46)|(780.08)|2.03|4.42|4.72| |经营活动现金流|3,159.96|2,034.91|2,090.76|2,456.49|3,050.89| |资本支出|140.13|67.76|21.28|79.10|20.00| |其他|(608.78)|(311.69)|344.91|59.88|96.89| |投资活动现金流|(472.06)|(244.45)|366.19|138.98|116.89| |债权融资|110.16|273.01|(12.89)|0.69|29.50| |其他|572.17|(537.91)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|(2,765.53)|(2,781.66)|(2,357.61)|(3,091.30)|(2,973.64)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(77.63)|(991.20)|99.34|(495.83)|194.14| [10][11]