报告公司投资评级 - 维持对宁波银行的“买入”评级 [1][6] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年宁波银行营收同比增长8.2%，业绩增速放缓或主因有效税率上升，后续业绩恢复成长需营收端更有力提振 [6] - 4Q24宁波银行贷款同比增长17.8%，信贷高增为以量补价实现利息净收入企稳赋予空间 [6] - 4Q24宁波银行不良率持平0.76%，拨备覆盖率降至389%，资产质量保持稳定但拨备延续下降，既受消金子公司并表摊薄影响，也与不良生成上升、核销增加有关，预计零售不良暴露压力有望缓解 [6] - 维持“买入”评级，上调2024年盈利增速预测，调低2025、2026年盈利增速预测，预计2024 - 2026年归母净利润同比增速分别为6.2%、5.5%、7.2% [6] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 市场与基础数据 - 2025年2月5日，宁波银行收盘价25.73元，一年内最高/最低28.27/18.35元，市净率0.9，股息率2.33%，流通A股市值1678.52亿元 [1] - 2024年9月30日，每股净资产29.89元，资产负债率92.72%，总股本/流通A股66.04亿/65.24亿股 [1] 事件与业绩表现 - 宁波银行2024年年报业绩快报显示，2024年营收666亿元，同比增长8.2%，归母净利润271亿元，同比增长6.2%；4Q24不良率季度环比持平0.76%，拨备覆盖率季度环比下降15.6pct至389% [4] 财务数据及盈利预测 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业总收入（百万元）|57879|61585|66632|70107.86|73888.37| |营业总收入同比增长率（%）|9.67|6.40|8.20|5.22|5.39| |资产减值损失（百万元）|10431|8940|10712.17|12954.93|14901.31| |资产减值损失同比增长率（%）|(15.72)|(14.29)|19.82|20.94|15.02| |归母净利润（百万元）|23075|25535|27127|28612.37|30679.98| |归母净利润同比增长率（%）|18.05|10.66|6.23|5.48|7.23| |每股收益（元/股）|3.38|3.75|3.95|4.17|4.49| |ROE（%）|15.53|15.05|13.56|12.53|12.13| |不良贷款率（%）|0.75|0.76|0.76|0.76|0.76| |市盈率|7.61|6.86|6.51|6.16|5.73| |市净率|1.11|0.96|0.82|0.73|0.66| [5] 公司点评 - 营收方面，2024年营收同比增长8.2%，预计受益于4Q24非息收入增长提速，业绩增速放缓主要和所得税费用增加有关 [6] - 信贷方面，4Q24贷款同比增长17.8%，全年新增贷款2233亿，同比多增166亿，年初信贷开门红有望延续领先增速 [6] - 资产质量方面，4Q24不良率持平0.76%，拨备覆盖率降至389%，受消金子公司并表和零售不良生成上升影响，预计零售不良暴露压力有望缓解 [6] 上市银行估值比较 |上市银行|代码|收盘价（元）|流通市值(亿元)|P/E(X)（24E/25E）|P/B(X)（24E/25E）|ROAE（24E/25E）|ROAA（24E/25E）|股息收益率（24E/25E）| |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| |工商银行|601398.SH|6.69|18037|6.81/6.75|0.65/0.61|9.9%/9.4%|0.78%/0.71%|4.6%/4.6%| |建设银行|601939.SH|8.38|804|6.38/6.33|0.66/0.61|10.7%/10.1%|0.83%/0.76%|4.8%/4.8%| |农业银行|601288.SH|5.05|16122|6.72/6.50|0.68/0.64|10.5%/10.1%|0.66%/0.61%|4.6%/4.8%| |中国银行|601988.SH|5.32|11213|7.18/7.11|0.66/0.62|9.5%/9.0%|0.73%/0.66%|4.4%/4.5%| |邮储银行|601658.SH|5.28|4187|6.42/6.33|0.62/0.58|10.0%/9.5%|0.53%/0.49%|4.9%/5.0%| |招商银行|600036.SH|40.00|8252|7.07/6.83|0.96/0.88|14.5%/13.5%|1.29%/1.23%|4.9%/5.0%| |中信银行|601998.SH|6.55|2609|5.58/6.35|0.52/0.51|9.9%/8.1%|0.82%/0.71%|5.4%/5.0%| |民生银行|600016.SH|4.09|1450|6.24/6.17|0.33/0.31|5.3%/5.2%|0.43%/0.42%|5.3%/4.8%| |浦发银行|600000.SH|10.41|3056|7.66/7.24|0.47/0.45|6.3%/6.4%|0.50%/0.49%|3.1%/3.9%| |兴业银行|601166.SH|20.13|4182|5.73/5.68|0.55/0.51|9.9%/9.3%|0.75%/0.73%|5.2%/5.2%| |光大银行|601818.SH|3.78|1754|6.09/6.05|0.47/0.45|8.0%/7.6%|0.62%/0.61%|4.6%/4.7%| |华夏银行|600015.SH|7.41|1179|4.84/4.82|0.40/0.37|8.5%/8.0%|0.64%/0.62%|5.2%/5.4%| |平安银行|000001.SZ|11.37|2206|5.00/4.91|0.51/0.48|10.6%/10.0%|0.82%/0.79%|6.3%/6.4%| |南京银行|601009.SH|10.59|1172|5.79/5.34|0.74/0.69|13.6%/13.3%|0.87%/0.84%|5.4%/5.5%| |宁波银行|002142.SZ|25.73|1699|6.51/6.16|0.82/0.73|13.6%/12.5%|0.93%/0.86%|2.3%/2.5%| |江苏银行|600919.SH|9.75|1789|5.90/5.49|0.77/0.68|13.7%/13.1%|0.95%/0.89%|4.8%/5.3%| |上海银行|601229.SH|9.15|1300|5.87/5.73|0.55/0.52|9.8%/9.3%|0.72%/0.70%|5.0%/5.1%| |杭州银行|600926.SH|14.58|882|5.32/4.69|0.81/0.71|16.3%/16.1%|0.86%/0.86%|3.6%/4.2%| |苏州银行|002966.SZ|7.70|306|6.33/5.83|0.71/0.60|11.7%/11.1%|0.82%/0.78%|5.1%/4.5%| |成都银行|601838.SH|16.81|701|5.55/5.03|0.88/0.78|17.4%/16.4%|1.10%/1.06%|4.9%/5.3%| |重庆银行|601963.SH|8.95|170|6.25/5.80|0.58/0.54|9.6%/9.6%|0.69%/0.67%|4.6%/4.8%| |厦门银行|601187.SH|5.50|145|5.42/4.88|0.56/0.52|10.8%/11.1%|0.72%/0.73%|5.6%/5.9%| |无锡银行|600908.SH|5.74|126|5.71/5.42|0.60/0.55|11.0%/10.6%|0.93%/0.88%|3.7%/3.8%| |常熟银行|601128.SH|7.32|221|5.73/5.20|0.77/0.69|14.3%/14.0%|1.15%/1.12%|3.4%/3.6%| |江阴银行|002807.SZ|4.27|105|4.93/4.36|0.59/0.53|12.7%/12.8%|1.17%/1.22%|4.4%/4.4%| |苏农银行|603323.SH|5.29|97|5.04/4.60|0.54/0.51|11.4%/11.4%|0.96%/0.97%|3.4%/3.7%| |张家港行|002839.SZ|4.24|104|5.11/4.77|0.56/0.51|11.5%/11.2%|0.87%/0.83%|4.7%/5.0%| |瑞丰银行|601528.SH|5.44|107|5.36/4.80|0.58/0.53|11.4%/11.6%|0.97%/0.98%|3.3%/3.8%| |紫金银行|601860.SH|2.75|101|6.41/5.94|0.49/0.43|8.0%/7.7%|0.60%/0.57%|3.6%/3.5%| |沪农商行|601825.SH|8.18|789|6.42/6.31|0.65/0.61|10.5%/10.0%|0.87%/0.82%|4.6%/5.1%| |渝农商行|601077.SH|5.98|529|6.07/5.82|0.55/0.51|9.4%/9.1%|0.77%/0.74%|4.8%/5.0%| |A股板块平均|-|-|-|6.54/6.41|0.66/0.61|10.5%/9.9%|0.77%/0.72%|4.7%/4.8%| [11]