报告公司投资评级 - 行业为纺织服饰/饰品，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [8] 报告的核心观点 - 潮宏基产品定位年轻化、差异化，收入表现跑赢大盘，24Q1/Q2/Q3公司收入分别同比增长17.9%、10.3%、下滑4.4%，同期金银珠宝社零同比分别增长4.5%、下滑5.1%、下滑10.1% [1] - 产品端串珠编绳产品成功出圈，产品结构逐步完善，2021 - 2023年传统黄金饰品占比上升，时尚珠宝产品占比下降 [2] - 渠道端门店逆势扩张，截至24Q3末“CHJ潮宏基”珠宝总店数为1482家，加盟店较年初净增126家，彰显加盟商信心 [3] - 看好公司产品创新驱动的α，低估值 + 高股息，维持“买入”评级，预计24 - 26年归母净利润为3.5/4.3/5.1亿元，对应PE分别为15/12/10X，假设25年分红比例69%，对应25年动态股息率达6% [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|4,417.41|5,899.85|6,613.74|7,744.69|9,146.47| |增长率(%)| - 4.73|33.56|12.10|17.10|18.10| |EBITDA(百万元)|576.03|576.99|551.98|666.28|780.79| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|199.13|333.35|353.76|428.53|507.62| |增长率(%)| - 43.22|67.41|6.12|21.14|18.46| |EPS(元/股)|0.22|0.38|0.40|0.48|0.57| |市盈率(P/E)|26.24|15.67|14.77|12.19|10.29| |市净率(P/B)|1.47|1.44|1.41|1.36|1.31| |市销率(P/S)|1.18|0.89|0.79|0.67|0.57| |EV/EBITDA|7.88|10.13|11.73|9.15|9.42| [6] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|650.31|643.41|529.10|619.57|731.72| |应收票据及应收账款|266.17|286.28|340.58|429.86|447.90| |预付账款|16.16|13.80|34.31|18.11|40.52| |存货|2,665.12|2,688.26|4,918.78|3,850.30|5,933.76| |其他|311.83|429.49|430.79|376.26|472.95| |流动资产合计|3,909.59|4,061.25|6,253.56|5,294.10|7,626.84| |长期股权投资|194.70|197.73|197.73|197.73|197.73| |固定资产|426.66|530.44|496.80|463.15|429.51| |在建工程|28.29|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |无形资产|29.18|24.27|15.18|6.08|0.00| |其他|964.68|923.80|878.25|872.80|870.20| |非流动资产合计|1,643.50|1,676.24|1,587.95|1,539.77|1,497.44| |资产总计|5,553.09|5,737.49|7,593.42|7,089.87|9,124.29| |短期借款|438.87|333.29|1,622.54|1,252.44|2,651.87| |应付票据及应付账款|144.20|115.56|384.91|141.96|433.25| |其他|965.84|1,155.79|1,475.01|1,378.95|1,599.95| |流动负债合计|1,548.91|1,604.64|3,482.47|2,773.36|4,685.08| |长期借款|279.02|195.76|235.00|256.00|230.29| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|33.01|30.25|36.87|33.38|33.50| |非流动负债合计|312.03|226.01|271.87|289.38|263.79| |负债合计|1,961.58|1,919.97|3,754.34|3,062.74|4,948.86| |少数股东权益|49.06|185.71|129.40|188.00|188.54| |股本|888.51|888.51|888.51|888.51|888.51| |资本公积|1,345.68|1,280.59|1,280.59|1,280.59|1,280.59| |留存收益|1,425.06|1,580.71|1,690.99|1,798.43|1,950.05| |其他| - 116.80| - 118.00| - 150.39| - 128.40| - 132.26| |股东权益合计|3,591.52|3,817.52|3,839.09|4,027.13|4,175.42| |负债和股东权益总计|5,553.09|5,737.49|7,593.42|7,089.87|9,124.29| [12] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|4,417.41|5,899.85|6,613.74|7,744.69|9,146.47| |营业成本|3,084.32|4,361.66|4,993.37|5,847.24|6,905.59| |营业税金及附加|77.61|90.86|112.43|131.66|155.49| |销售费用|774.02|827.90|833.33|975.83|1,152.46| |管理费用|91.14|125.89|112.43|100.68|109.76| |研发费用|59.84|62.69|66.14|77.45|91.46| |财务费用|29.69|31.42|70.98|95.79|121.21| |资产/信用减值损失| - 84.49| - 33.10| - 1.82|1.46|2.34| |公允价值变动收益|0.49| - 0.51|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|18.84|3.10|13.22|11.72|9.34| |其他|114.35|27.34|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|251.62|402.62|436.44|529.22|622.19| |营业外收入|0.72|0.57|1.55|0.94|1.02| |营业外支出|0.58|0.53|0.57|0.56|0.55| |利润总额|251.76|402.66|437.42|529.61|622.66| |所得税|46.69|72.63|79.78|96.78|113.22| |净利润|205.07|330.03|357.64|432.83|509.44| |少数股东损益|5.94| - 3.32|3.88|4.30|1.82| |归属于母公司净利润|199.13|333.35|353.76|428.53|507.62| |每股收益（元）|0.22|0.38|0.40|0.48|0.57| [12] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|205.07|330.03|353.76|428.53|507.62| |折旧摊销|115.14|70.09|42.73|42.73|39.73| |财务费用|34.89|37.32|70.98|95.79|121.21| |投资损失| - 18.83| - 3.12| - 13.22| - 11.72| - 9.34| |营运资金变动| - 23.46|46.23| - 1,779.79|716.37| - 1,699.72| |其它|101.06|134.67|3.88|4.30|1.82| |经营活动现金流|413.87|615.24| - 1,321.65|1,276.01| - 1,038.69| |资本支出|9.09|77.31|4.10|3.49|3.20| |长期投资|12.15|3.03|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他| - 99.89| - 298.91|53.86|0.77| - 3.80| |投资活动现金流| - 78.64| - 218.56|57.96|4.26| - 0.60| |债权融资| - 41.72| - 191.87|1,428.00| - 887.56|1,512.58| |股权融资| - 177.66| - 288.43| - 278.63| - 302.23| - 361.15| |其他| - 33.94|111.11|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流| - 253.32| - 369.19|1,149.37| - 1,189.79|1,151.43| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|81.90|27.49| - 114.31|90.48|112.14| [12] 主要财务比率 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入| - 4.73%|33.56%|12.10%|17.10%|18.10%| |营业利润| - 41.69%|60.01%|8.40%|21.26%|17.57%| |归属于母公司净利润| - 43.22%|67.41%|6.12%|21.14%|18.46%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|30.18%|26.07%|24.50%|24.50%|24.50%| |净利率|4.51%|5.65%|5.35%|5.53%|5.55%| |ROE|5.62%|9.18%|9.54%|11.16%|12.73%| |ROIC|6.58%|10.45%|12.10%|10.29%|12.91%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|35.32%|33.46%|49.44%|43.20%|54.24%| |净负债率|3.87%| - 0.38%|36.68%|24.15%|53.60%| |流动比率|2.37|2.40|1.80|1.91|1.63| |速动比率|0.75|0.81