报告公司投资评级 - 行业为家用电器/白色家电，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 3月3日格力电器公告，5%以上股东京海互联拟6个月内以自有资金和金融机构增持专项贷款，通过集中竞价增持10.5-21亿元股份 [1] - 京海互联前身为京海担保，2007年入股格力电器，2007-2019年持股稳定在9%，2020年和2022年两度减持，23年底增持312万股，至今持股3.86亿股，比例约6.86% [2] - 25W1-W8格力品牌空调线上/线下销额分别同比+28%/+52%，市占率分别同比+4.2/1.5pcts至28.0%/33.1%，基本面向上股东增持彰显信心 [2] - 股东回购用自有资金+金融机构增持专项贷款，贷款利率不超2.25%，远低于格力股息率（23年分红比例45%，假设24-25年维持此比例对应股息率分别6.1%/6.5%），利于稳定股价增强信心 [2] - 24年四季度以旧换新推进，国内空调行业零售增速提升，公司空调业务有望迎来拐点，预计24-26年归母净利润分别为310/329/347亿元，对应PE为7.5x/7.1x/6.7x，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|190,150.67|205,018.12|200,627.57|207,522.04|216,852.83| |增长率(%)|0.26|7.82|-2.14|3.44|4.50| |EBITDA(百万元)|37,880.52|46,038.24|40,989.69|42,732.54|44,601.93| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|24,506.62|29,017.39|31,020.64|32,911.07|34,675.10| |增长率(%)|6.26|18.41|6.90|6.09|5.36| |EPS(元/股)|4.38|5.18|5.54|5.88|6.19| |市盈率(P/E)|9.53|8.05|7.53|7.10|6.73| |市净率(P/B)|2.41|2.00|1.79|1.69|1.62| |市销率(P/S)|1.23|1.14|1.16|1.13|1.08| |EV/EBITDA|1.73|1.14|2.76|2.81|2.95| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本5,601.41百万股，流通A股股本5,515.45百万股 [6] - A股总市值227,193.02百万元，流通A股市值223,706.50百万元 [6] - 每股净资产22.44元，资产负债率65.05% [6] - 一年内最高/最低股价为52.73/36.74元 [6] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|36,776.77|46,424.45|45,366.32|44,035.74|43,035.74| |负债合计(百万元)|253,148.71|247,407.75|217,144.80|209,303.74|185,810.24| |股本(百万元)|5,631.41|5,631.41|5,601.41|5,601.41|5,601.41| |股东权益合计(百万元)|101,876.05|120,646.15|133,560.92|140,833.78|147,232.00| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动|(8,127.10)|(11,305.71)|(15,025.42)|(4,507.06)|(10,578.23)| |长期投资|(4,444.72)|(1,403.32)|(900.00)|(750.00)|(550.00)| |股权融资|(6,360.85)|(13,350.83)|(16,685.08)|(24,372.39)|(27,266.92)| [11] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|157,484.33|124,104.99|124,636.70|128,274.01|126,586.58| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|14,831.56|16,186.82|15,021.92|17,835.74|16,860.71| |预付账款(百万元)|2,344.67|2,492.65|2,236.18|2,633.71|2,447.67| |存货(百万元)|38,314.18|32,579.14|24,624.40|26,430.85|18,645.91| |其他(百万元)|41,117.56|51,938.91|58,700.83|70,231.55|80,445.20| |流动资产合计(百万元)|254,092.30|227,302.50|225,220.03|245,405.86|244,986.08| |长期股权投资(百万元)|5,892.29|4,488.97|3,588.97|2,838.97|2,288.97| |固定资产(百万元)|33,817.02|34,034.83|31,530.93|28,359.65|24,791.67| |在建工程(百万元)|5,966.68|6,563.91|5,189.23|3,849.92|3,104.95| |无形资产(百万元)|11,621.85|10,827.69|10,369.32|9,910.94|9,452.56| |其他(百万元)|42,586.88|83,997.19|74,807.24|59,772.19|48,418.02| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|99,884.72|139,912.59|125,485.68|104,731.66|88,056.16| |资产总计(百万元)|355,024.76|368,053.90|350,705.71|350,137.52|333,042.24| |短期借款(百万元)|52,895.85|26,443.48|26,443.48|26,443.48|26,443.48| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|71,465.97|64,888.49|49,518.59|44,737.26|29,024.72| |其他(百万元)|77,037.78|96,062.56|95,816.41|94,087.26|87,306.30| |流动负债合计(百万元)|201,399.60|187,394.53|171,778.48|165,268.00|142,774.49| |长期借款(百万元)|30,784.24|39,035.74|39,035.74|39,035.74|39,035.74| |应付债券(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|5,992.53|7,388.71|6,330.57|5,000.00|4,000.00| |少数股东权益(百万元)|5,117.31|3,852.44|3,204.19|2,951.03|2,749.04| |股本(百万元)|5,631.41|5,631.41|5,601.41|5,601.41|5,601.41| |资本公积(百万元)|496.10|1,352.52|1,675.44|1,675.44|1,675.44| |留存收益(百万元)|93,699.19|113,942.78|128,096.08|134,678.29|141,613.31| |其他(百万元)|(3,067.97)|(4,132.99)|(5,016.20)|(4,072.39)|(4,407.19)| |股东权益合计(百万元)|101,876.05|120,646.15|133,560.92|140,833.78|147,232.00| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|355,024.76|368,053.90|350,705.71|350,137.52|333,042.24| [12] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|190,150.67|205,018.12|200,627.57|207,522.04|216,852.83| |营业成本(百万元)|139,784.39|141,625.55|137,288.50|141,383.78|147,523.96| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|1,612.24|2,114.18|2,006.28|2,075.22|2,168.53| |销售费用(百万元)|11,285.45|17,129.64|15,247.70|15,564.15|16,263.96| |管理费用(百万元)|5,268.00|6,542.16|5,521.55|5,810.62|6,071.88| |研发费用(百万元)|6,281.39|6,762.14|6,620.71|6,848.23|7,156.14| |财务费用(百万元)|(2,206.76)|(3,526.52)|(2,664.50)|(2,799.26)|(2,996.76)| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(1,383.05)|(3,317.62)|(1,819.27)|(1,455.42)|(1,218.55)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|(343.58)|437.58|11.96|35.32|161.62| |投资净收益(百万元)|86.88|217.16|275.37|275.37|275.37| |其他(百万元)|2,481.60|4,169.08|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润(百万元)|27,284.10|32,864.78|35,075.40|37,494.57|39,883.56| |营业外收入(百万元)|59.81|128.37|59.81|59.81|59.81| |营业外支出(百万元)|126.52|177.45|126.52|126.52|126.52| |利润总额(百万元)|27,217.38|32,815.70|35,008.69|37,427.86|39,816.85| |所得税(百万元)|4,206.04|5,096.68|5,408.84|5,782.60|6,151.70| |净利润(百万元)|23,011.34|27,719.02|29,599.84|31,645.26|33,665.15| |少数股东损益(百万元)|(1,495.28)|(1,298.36)|(1,420.79)|(1,265.81)|(1,009.95)| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|24,506.62|29,017.39|31,020.64|32,911.