报告公司投资评级 - 维持评级 [1] 报告的核心观点 - 报告对电子行业公司进行点评，给出财务预测及相关指标变化情况，维持公司投资评级 根据相关目录分别进行总结 市场数据 - 股票代码为002916.SZ，2025年3月13日A股收盘价128.00元，上证指数3358.73，总股本51,287.75万股，实际流通A股51,155.43万股，流通A股市值655亿元 [2] 行业财务数据 |年份|营业收入(百万元)|收入增长率%|归母净利润(百万元)|利润增速%|毛利率%|摊薄EPS(元)|PE|PB|PS| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |2024A|17907.45|32.39|1877.57|34.29|24.83|3.66|34.96|4.49|3.67| |2025E|21921.86|22.42|2372.82|26.38|25.66|4.63|27.67|3.86|2.99| |2026E|26598.97|21.34|2801.21|18.05|25.08|5.46|23.44|3.31|2.47| |2027E|29835.03|12.17|3232.48|15.40|26.13|6.30|20.31|2.85|2.20|[5] 资产负债表数据(百万元) |项目|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |流动资产|10854.17|16235.40|21945.67|27955.15| |现金|1553.32|4620.06|7607.87|12032.07| |应收账款|3805.72|4871.52|5910.88|6630.01| |其它应收款|41.96|60.89|73.89|69.62| |预付账款|9.40|81.48|99.64|11.02| |存货|3395.00|4073.99|4982.17|5509.51| |非流动资产|14448.08|13201.02|12175.86|10503.33| |长期投资|3.42|3.42|3.42|3.42| |固定资产|12395.59|11439.91|10581.91|9105.71| |无形资产|585.47|585.47|585.47|585.47| |其他|1463.59|1172.21|1005.06|808.72| |资产总计|25302.25|29436.41|34121.53|38458.48| |流动负债|7489.36|9217.07|11099.29|12201.82| |短期借款|10.01|10.01|10.01|10.01| |应付账款|2686.96|3168.66|3875.02|4285.18| |其他|4792.39|6038.40|7214.27|7906.63| |非流动负债|3166.99|3166.99|3166.99|3166.99| |长期借款|2576.90|2576.90|2576.90|2576.90| |负债合计|10656.35|12384.06|14266.28|15368.81| |少数股东权益|28.88|30.31|31.99|33.93| |归属母公司股东权益|14617.02|17022.05|19823.26|23055.74| |负债和股东权益|25302.25|29436.41|34121.53|38458.48|[6] 现金流量表数据(百万元) |项目|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |活动现金流|2982.22|3624.37|3803.91|4560.58| |净利润|1878.72|2374.24|2802.89|3234.42| |折旧摊销|1510.92|1578.07|1646.15|1652.53| |财务费用|47.78|103.38|103.38|103.38| |投资损失|-4.10|-32.88|-39.90|0.00| |营运资金变动|-459.74|-436.78|-760.24|-452.75| |其它|8.64|38.35|51.62|23.00| |投资活动现金流|-1925.05|-486.46|-712.72|-33.00| |资本支出|-2523.01|-418.35|-621.62|-3.00| |长期投资|0.00|-100.00|-130.00|-30.00| |筹资活动现金流|-388.75|-103.38|-103.38|-103.38| |短期借款|-390.29|0.00|0.00|0.00| |长期借款|170.28|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|700.63|3066.74|2987.81|4424.20|[6] 利润表数据(百万元) |项目|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|17907.45|21921.86|26598.97|29835.03| |营业成本|13460.31|16295.96|19928.66|22038.06| |营业税金及附加|130.01|175.37|212.79|238.68| |营业费用|305.23|394.59|452.18|507.20| |管理费用|724.94|986.48|1223.55|1342.58| |财务费用|46.77|72.31|10.98|-48.78| |资产减值损失|-189.37|-20.00|-30.00|-20.00| |公允价值变动收益|1.14|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|4.10|32.88|39.90|0.00| |营业利润|2028.25|2569.75|3033.15|3499.67| |营业外收入|6.35|7.00|8.00|9.00| |营业外支出|11.24|10.00|11.00|12.00| |利润总额|2023.36|2566.75|3030.15|3496.67| |所得税|144.64|192.51|227.26|262.25| |净利润|1878.72|2374.24|2802.89|3234.42| |少数股东损益|1.16|1.42|1.68|1.94| |归属母公司净利润|1877.57|2372.82|2801.21|3232.48| |EBITDA|3597.05|4217.13|4687.28|5100.42| |EPS (元)|3.66|4.63|5.46|6.30|[7] 主要财务比率 |项目|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入增长率|32.39%|22.42%|21.34%|12.17%| |营业利润增长率|45.13%|26.70%|18.03%|15.38%| |归属母公司净利润增长率|34.29%|26.38%|18.05%|15.40%| |毛利率|24.83%|25.66%|25.08%|26.13%| |净利率|10.48%|10.82%|10.53%|10.83%| |ROE|12.85%|13.94%|14.13%|14.02%| |ROIC|10.80%|12.00%|12.15%|12.09%| |资产负债率|42.12%|42.07%|41.81%|39.96%| |净负债比率|11.91%|-7.76%|-21.71%|-37.83%| |流动比率|1.45|1.76|1.98|2.29| |速动比率|0.89|1.24|1.43|1.75| |总资产周转率|0.75|0.80|0.84|0.82| |应收账款周转率|5.19|5.05|4.93|4.76| |应付账款周转率|5.70|5.57|5.66|5.40| |每股收益(元)|3.66|4.63|5.46|6.30| |每股经营现金(元)|5.81|7.07|7.42|8.89| |每股净资产(元)|28.50|33.19|38.65|44.95| |PE|34.96|27.67|23.44|20.31| |PB|4.49|3.86|3.31|2.85| |EV/EBITDA|18.31|15.25|13.09|11.16| |PS|3.67|2.99|2.47|2.20|[7]