报告公司投资评级 - 行业为基础化工/化学原料，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [9] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年公司全年归母净利润60.7亿，同比提高26.8%；Q4归母净利润23.8亿，同比提高70.4% [1] - 2024年公司C2利润维持高位，2025年有望继续维持，2024年全年乙烷 - 乙烯平均利润2749元/吨，2025年年均利润为2459元/吨 [2] - 丁辛醇贡献增量，2025年80万吨多碳醇项目或将全年贡献业绩，利润有望进一步增厚 [3] - 新项目于2025年年底落地，C2产能或将翻倍，乙烯产量或将从250万吨变为500万吨 [4] - 维持公司2025/2026年归母净利润75.3/95.3亿元，对应EPS为2.24/2.83元/股，给予2027年归母净利润116.1亿元，对应EPS为3.45元/股 [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|41,486.92|45,648.35|59,342.86|72,625.80|93,687.29| |增长率(%)|11.99|10.03|30.00|22.38|29.00| |EBITDA(百万元)|9,874.50|12,794.89|13,067.21|15,688.83|18,658.84| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|4,789.49|6,071.84|7,531.75|9,534.63|11,612.15| |增长率(%)|56.42|26.77|24.04|26.59|21.79| |EPS(元/股)|1.42|1.80|2.24|2.83|3.45| |市盈率(P/E)|15.23|12.02|9.69|7.65|6.28| |市净率(P/B)|2.87|2.41|1.99|1.62|1.31| |市销率(P/S)|1.76|1.60|1.23|1.00|0.78| |EV/EBITDA|3.93|3.84|4.91|3.49|2.37| [7] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|6,398.84|8,507.13|6,812.50|18,195.18|31,139.89| |应收票据及应收账款|639.44|827.30|821.12|1,196.27|1,406.16| |预付账款|354.88|132.06|1,674.97|467.52|1,753.32| |存货|4,233.44|4,397.58|6,491.11|6,937.03|10,573.51| |流动资产合计|12,732.91|15,498.54|17,289.54|28,341.30|46,606.68| |长期股权投资|2,471.47|2,405.10|2,405.10|2,405.10|2,405.10| |固定资产|25,258.27|26,966.53|27,766.96|27,744.72|26,781.34| |在建工程|3,186.40|2,823.62|2,823.62|2,823.62|2,823.62| |无形资产|1,800.55|2,331.40|2,279.07|2,226.74|2,174.42| |非流动资产合计|51,849.05|52,806.67|53,336.77|53,323.13|51,845.83| |资产总计|64,581.96|68,305.21|70,626.31|81,664.43|98,452.50| |短期借款|1,225.87|1,410.54|1,237.67|1,291.36|1,313.19| |应付票据及应付账款|5,670.28|5,621.35|8,986.19|9,076.12|14,238.95| |流动负债合计|11,097.93|14,400.77|19,438.28|22,135.23|28,549.43| |长期借款|10,839.04|7,245.84|9,544.49|10,498.94|11,548.84| |非流动负债合计|27,173.98|22,628.10|24,990.01|26,219.85|27,065.07| |负债合计|39,088.61|38,000.49|44,428.29|48,355.08|55,614.50| |少数股东权益|28.42|18.78|23.71|29.38|25.70| |股本|3,368.65|3,368.65|3,368.65|3,368.65|3,368.65| |资本公积|4,464.55|4,488.41|4,488.41|4,488.41|4,488.41| |留存收益|17,593.47|22,317.84|28,838.83|37,146.36|47,740.90| |股东权益合计|25,493.36|30,304.72|26,198.02|33,309.35|42,838.00| |负债和股东权益总计|64,581.96|68,305.21|70,626.31|81,664.43|98,452.50| [13][14] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|41,486.92|45,648.35|59,342.86|72,625.80|93,687.29| |营业成本|33,257.39|34,890.97|45,175.79|55,014.05|71,716.86| |营业税金及附加|143.51|283.48|178.03|217.88|281.06| |销售费用|145.27|128.15|160.23|196.09|252.96| |管理费用|530.82|756.86|1,780.29|2,178.77|2,810.62| |研发费用|1,626.01|1,751.01|2,276.32|2,785.83|3,593.72| |财务费用|811.16|1,024.57|1,082.37|1,221.61|1,446.16| |资产/信用减值损失|(10.78)|(301.83)|(36.49)|(21.26)|(119.86)| |公允价值变动收益|187.37|265.53|243.07|260.00|250.00| |投资净收益|(13.78)|(108.41)|(27.00)|(24.56)|(53.32)| |营业利润|5,377.82|7,033.69|8,869.43|11,225.75|13,662.72| |营业外收入|10.66|37.63|13.94|18.29|23.29| |营业外支出|20.45|53.24|15.79|19.17|29.40| |利润总额|5,368.03|7,018.08|8,867.58|11,224.87|13,656.60| |所得税|584.27|956.12|1,330.14|1,683.73|2,048.49| |净利润|4,783.75|6,061.96|7,537.44|9,541.14|11,608.11| |少数股东损益|(5.74)|(9.88)|5.69|6.51|(4.04)| |归属于母公司净利润|4,789.49|6,071.84|7,531.75|9,534.63|11,612.15| |每股收益（元）|1.42|1.80|2.24|2.83|3.45| [13][14] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营运资金变动|(1,719.16)|(1,627.77)|(599.63)|2,053.09|174.55| |长期投资|232.89|(66.37)|(33.39)|44.38|(18.46)| |股权融资|(1,831.75)|96.63|(1,071.32)|(1,212.33)|(1,007.73)| |经营活动现金流|7,996.40|10,590.39|11,335.54|16,302.05|16,848.85| |投资活动现金流|(2,043.96)|(2,943.70)|(3,903.73)|(3,276.08)|(2,450.24)| |筹资活动现金流|(5,071.89)|(5,400.85)|(9,335.77)|(1,433.95)|(1,453.89)| |现金净增加额|880.56|2,245.83|(1,903.96)|11,592.02|12,944.71| [13][14] 主要财务比率 |指标|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力 - 营业收入|11.99%|10.03%|30.00%|22.38%|29.00%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|55.97%|30.79%|26.10%|26.57%|21.71%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|56.42%|26.77%|24.04%|26.59%|21.79%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|19.84%|23.57%|23.87%|24.25%|23.45%| |获利能力 - 净利率|11.54%|13.30%|12.69%|13.13%|12.39%| |获利能力 - ROE|18.81%|20.05%|20.50%|21.16%|20.86%| |获利能力 - ROIC|48.66%|47.84%|52.59%|60.76%|85.22%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|60.53%|55.63%|62.91%|59.21%|56.49%| |偿债能力 - 净负债率|32.23%|13.78%|36.15%|0.29%|-25.16%| |偿债能力 - 流动比率|1.07|1.01|0.89|1.28|1.63| |偿债能力 - 速动比率|0.71|0.72|0.56|0.97|1.26| |营运能力 - 应收账款周转率|63.08|62.24|72.00|72.00|72.00| |营运能力 - 存货周转率|10.23|10.58|10.90|10.82|10.70| |营运能力 - 总资产周转率|0.69|0.69|0.85|0.95|1.04| |每股指标 - 每股收益|1.42|1.80|2.24|2.83|3.45| |每股指标 - 每股经营现金流|2.37|3.14|3.37|4.84|5.00| |每股指标 - 每股净资产|7.56|8.99|10.91|13.38|16.53| |估值比率 - 市盈率|15.23