报告公司投资评级 - 行业为国防军工/航空装备Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 公司3月31日发布2024年报，全年营收432.2亿，YoY+7.2%；归母净利润10.2亿元，YoY+18.9%；扣非归母净利润9.2亿元，YoY+13.8%，业绩增长得益于坚持高质量发展等举措 [1] - Q4单季度净利润同比大增39%，净利率水平稳中有升，2024年全年毛利率为5.9%，同比减少1.02ppt；净利率为2.4%，同比增加0.23ppt [1] - 重视研发投入，销售回款增加大幅改善经营活动净现金流，2024年研发费用2.7亿元，同比增长9.3%，经营活动净现金流-0.6亿元，上年同期为-55.1亿元 [1] - 一期股权激成功解锁，大飞机业务快速发展，公司零部件产品覆盖所有国产民用大中型飞机主力型号，是产业链核心供应商 [2] - 根据下游需求节奏变化，调整公司2025 - 2027年营业收入分别为460.25/517.78/601.92亿元，调整归母净利润为11.39/13.48/16.02亿元，对应PE为57.01/48.17/40.54x，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|40,301.23|43,215.75|46,024.78|51,777.87|60,191.78| |增长率(%)|7.01|7.23|6.50|12.50|16.25| |EBITDA(百万元)|2,304.63|2,067.55|2,325.18|2,609.81|2,941.48| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|860.97|1,023.44|1,139.43|1,348.33|1,602.19| |增长率(%)|64.51|18.87|11.33|18.33|18.83| |EPS(元/股)|0.31|0.37|0.41|0.48|0.58| |市盈率(P/E)|75.44|63.47|57.01|48.17|40.54| |市净率(P/B)|3.32|3.09|3.00|2.87|2.74| |市销率(P/S)|1.61|1.50|1.41|1.25|1.08| |EV/EBITDA|18.03|28.04|19.23|16.79|14.35| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本2,781.74百万股，流通A股股本2,772.81百万股，A股总市值64,953.63百万元，流通A股市值64,745.06百万元 [6] - 每股净资产7.56元，资产负债率71.52%，一年内最高/最低32.64/20.00元 [6] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|(1,512.24)|(1,778.00)|(1,950.00)|(1,950.00)|(1,950.00)| |负债合计(百万元)|61,375.98|52,786.50|64,696.37|68,944.15|86,088.51| |股本(百万股)|2,781.74|2,781.74|2,781.74|2,781.74|2,781.74| |股东权益合计(百万元)|19,544.80|21,024.21|21,669.61|22,613.44|23,734.97| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |净利润|860.97|1,023.44|1,139.43|1,348.33|1,602.19| |折旧摊销|1,160.32|1,113.98|1,115.43|1,162.14|1,210.68| |财务费用|53.80|26.97|(116.00)|(119.59)|(129.95)| |投资损失|(43.50)|9.83|(10.00)|(10.00)|(10.00)| |营运资金变动|(11,016.50)|(4,084.21)|(1,049.64)|(177.10)|327.03| |其它|3,470.28|1,852.35|26.63|(3.86)|(6.30)| |经营活动现金流|(5,514.63)|(57.65)|1,105.84|2,199.93|2,993.65| |资本支出|4,484.72|2,104.01|761.20|1,040.00|1,045.00| |长期投资|5.33|(89.50)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(5,617.78)|(3,317.31)|(1,790.27)|(2,062.29)|(2,067.39)| |投资活动现金流|(1,127.73)|(1,302.80)|(1,029.06)|(1,022.29)|(1,022.39)| |债权融资|(404.93)|(207.79)|(10.16)|124.59|134.95| |股权融资|2,549.19|722.06|(494.03)|(404.50)|(480.66)| |其他|(2,554.62)|(578.47)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|(410.36)|(64.19)|(504.20)|(279.91)|(345.71)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(7,052.72)|(1,424.64)|(427.42)|897.73|1,625.55| [11] 资产负债表和利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)| | | | | | |货币资金|19,300.46|17,888.02|17,460.60|18,358.32|19,983.87| |应收票据及应收账款|17,973.78|12,600.10|19,361.55|18,033.58|27,110.25| |预付账款|2,221.66|1,965.06|2,822.47|3,085.95|4,710.89| |存货|23,433.32|22,692.44|27,576.70|32,850.37|38,256.82| |其他|830.37|307.03|2,750.72|2,958.81|3,657.32| |流动资产合计|63,759.60|55,452.65|69,972.04|75,287.03|93,719.16| |长期股权投资|1,693.49|1,603.99|1,603.99|1,603.99|1,603.99| |固定资产|8,196.74|7,523.63|7,381.59|7,240.21|7,084.28| |在建工程|808.83|1,829.25|1,980.48|2,086.33|2,160.43| |无形资产|1,749.13|1,783.73|1,694.13|1,607.52|1,523.66| |其他|2,801.40|3,754.70|3,733.75|3,732.51|3,731.96| |非流动资产合计|15,249.60|16,495.31|16,393.94|16,270.56|16,104.33| |资产总计|80,920.78|73,810.71|86,365.98|91,557.58|109,823.48| |短期借款|1,326.72|680.42|1,000.00|1,000.00|1,000.00| |应付票据及应付账款|37,824.46|41,604.95|39,783.19|52,871.65|54,724.75| |其他|4,934.35|4,474.17|25,863.19|17,022.49|32,313.76| |流动负债合计|44,085.53|46,759.54|66,646.37|70,894.15|88,038.51| |长期借款|62.44|495.80|50.00|50.00|50.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(1,574.68)|(2,273.80)|(2,000.00)|(2,000.00)|(2,000.00)| |少数股东权益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股本|2,781.74|2,781.74|2,781.74|2,781.74|2,781.74| |资本公积|11,192.66|11,764.49|11,764.49|11,764.49|11,764.49| |留存收益|4,918.43|5,675.77|6,473.37|7,417.20|8,538.74| |其他|651.97|802.21|650.00|650.00|650.00| |股东权益合计|19,544.80|21,024.21|21,669.61|22,613.44|23,734.97| |负债和股东权益总计|80,920.78|73,810.71|86,365.98|91,557.58|109,823.48| |利润表(百万元)| | | | | | |营业收入|40,301.23|43,215.75|46,024.78|51,777.87|60,191.78| |营业成本|37,531.73|40,685.76|43,087.84|48,341.66|56,137.26| |营业税金及附加|306.49|304.45|311.27|346.67|398.98| |销售费用|474.41|55.97|60.20|72.49|84.27| |管理费用|910.10|1,293.99|1,130.04|1,277.65|1,492.70| |研发费用|243.78|266.33|272.30|307.87|361.48| |财务费用|(253.87)|(132.24)|(116.00)|(119.59)|(129.95)| |资产/信用减值损失|(179.13)|(51.42)|(8.50)|(8.50)|(8.50)| |公允价值变动收益|12.51|36.55|26.63|(3.86)|(6.30)| |投资净收益|43.50|(9.83)|10.00|10.00|10.00| |其他|188.89|(418.64)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|1,022.83|1,184.84|1,307.26|1,548.76|1,842.24| |营业外收入|5.91|13.85|15.00|15.00|15.00| |营业外支出|7.47|3.46|5.00|5.00|5.00| |利润总额|1,021.27|1,195.23|1,317.26|1,558.76|1,852.24| |所得税|160.30|171.80|177.83|210.43|250.05