报告公司投资评级 - 行业为家用电器/黑色家电，6个月评级为增持（维持评级），当前价格121.13元 [6] 报告的核心观点 - 极米科技2024年营收34.05亿元同比降4.27%，归母净利润1.2亿元同比降0.3%；2024Q4营收11.23亿元同比降1.02%，归母净利润1.6亿元同比增367.35% [1] - 分产品长焦投影等收入有降有升，长焦投影销量同比显著提升；分区域内外销收入同比-14.8%/+18.94%，海外收入持续增长，且公司布局车载投影新业务，2024年实现从0到1突破，累计获8个车载业务定点 [2] - 2024年公司毛利率31.19%同比降0.06pct，净利率3.52%同比升0.15pct；2024Q4毛利率36.11%同比升8.2pct，净利率14.28%同比升11.28pct；分产品内外销毛利率同比分别为-2.91/+0.81pct；2024年各费用率有降有升，24A财务费用变动因利息收入增加 [3] - 公司坚持双轮驱动，实施品牌出海战略，开拓汽零业务打开第二成长曲线；预计25 - 27年归母净利润为3.5/5.1/6.4亿元，对应动态PE为24.3x/16.6x/13.3x [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|3,556.56|3,404.61|3,896.44|4,427.25|4,964.27| |增长率(%)|(15.77)|(4.27)|14.45|13.62|12.13| |EBITDA(百万元)|428.37|433.50|254.61|364.33|460.42| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|120.50|120.14|348.50|512.45|639.17| |增长率(%)|(75.97)|(0.30)|190.07|47.04|24.73| |EPS(元/股)|1.72|1.72|4.98|7.32|9.13| |市盈率(P/E)|70.36|70.58|24.33|16.55|13.27| |市净率(P/B)|2.72|2.88|2.45|2.19|1.92| |市销率(P/S)|2.38|2.49|2.18|1.92|1.71| |EV/EBITDA|13.26|10.66|23.52|14.52|10.78| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本70.00百万股，流通A股股本70.00百万股，A股总市值8,479.10百万元，流通A股市值8,479.10百万元，每股净资产42.04元，资产负债率44.62%，一年内最高/最低136.98/50.71元 [7] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|2,190.44|2,049.17|2,345.20|2,781.47|2,987.91| |应收票据及应收账款|216.19|194.78|173.22|171.12|104.67| |预付账款|19.44|23.54|18.98|31.42|26.29| |存货|1,098.07|928.40|1,408.55|1,313.74|1,676.04| |其他|638.78|716.56|692.24|735.35|749.88| |流动资产合计|4,162.92|3,912.45|4,638.20|5,033.10|5,544.78| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|1,087.10|1,043.02|983.33|923.65|863.97| |在建工程|14.27|4.77|6.77|7.77|8.77| |无形资产|58.55|47.56|31.35|15.14|0.00| |其他|259.38|310.99|219.39|217.57|218.92| |非流动资产合计|1,419.30|1,406.34|1,240.85|1,164.13|1,091.66| |资产总计|5,582.22|5,318.79|5,879.05|6,197.23|6,636.45| |短期借款|302.68|258.04|545.35|300.00|209.89| |应付票据及应付账款|710.10|672.93|903.82|970.26|1,085.90| |其他|266.82|607.27|259.40|388.59|293.99| |流动负债合计|1,279.59|1,538.25|1,708.57|1,658.85|1,589.77| |长期借款|300.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|846.15|806.23|706.98|670.00|650.00| |少数股东权益|3.45|3.17|(0.98)|(7.30)|(15.49)| |股本|70.00|70.00|70.00|70.00|70.00| |资本公积|2,092.44|1,938.22|2,092.44|2,092.44|2,092.44| |留存收益|984.36|1,089.57|1,370.24|1,797.78|2,352.36| |其他|(30.24)|(155.15)|(68.21)|(84.53)|(102.63)| |股东权益合计|3,120.01|2,945.80|3,463.49|3,868.38|4,396.67| |负债和股东权益总计|5,582.22|5,318.79|5,879.05|6,197.23|6,636.45| [12] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|3,556.56|3,404.61|3,896.44|4,427.25|4,964.27| |营业成本|2,445.18|2,342.64|2,703.01|3,066.69|3,426.94| |营业税金及附加|27.28|24.10|27.28|30.99|34.75| |销售费用|644.73|597.79|526.02|531.27|546.07| |管理费用|150.01|116.41|116.89|132.82|148.93| |研发费用|381.27|367.65|397.44|420.59|471.61| |财务费用|(31.64)|(49.80)|(49.80)|(38.96)|(44.27)| |资产/信用减值损失|(40.60)|(21.90)|(30.99)|(31.16)|(28.02)| |公允价值变动收益|18.62|10.75|18.62|10.75|20.58| |投资净收益|2.50|1.61|4.74|2.95|3.10| |其他|(73.35)|(310.13)|(90.87)|(111.28)|(96.78)| |营业利润|32.55|325.47|258.85|377.67|472.69| |营业外收入|0.83|4.51|2.00|5.00|3.84| |营业外支出|3.14|3.38|2.69|3.07|3.05| |利润总额|30.23|302.33|258.16|379.60|473.48| |所得税|(89.57)|(34.29)|(85.19)|(125.27)|(156.25)| |净利润|119.81|119.81|343.35|504.87|629.73| |少数股东损益|(0.37)|(0.28)|(5.15)|(7.57)|(9.45)| |归属于母公司净利润|120.50|120.14|348.50|512.45|639.17| |每股收益（元）|1.72|1.72|4.98|7.32|9.13| [12] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|119.81|119.86|348.50|512.45|639.17| |折旧摊销|104.15|119.14|75.89|75.89|74.82| |财务费用|(22.95)|(24.40)|(49.80)|(38.96)|(44.27)| |投资损失|(2.50)|(1.61)|(4.74)|(2.95)|(3.10)| |营运资金变动|350.88|31.42|(253.35)|212.59|(284.98)| |其它|(171.11)|(14.17)|13.47|3.18|11.14| |经营活动现金流|378.27|230.24|129.98|762.19|392.78| |资本支出|(335.18)|52.68|101.25|37.98|21.00| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|560.65|(1,129.18)|(135.76)|(57.53)|(60.06)| |投资活动现金流|225.47|(1,076.50)|(34.51)|(19.55)|(39.06)| |债权融资|341.59|(5.38)|26.21|(206.39)|(45.84)| |股权融资|(9.15)|(279.13)|174.34|(99.98)|(101.44)| |其他|(212.32)|(36.40)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|120.13|(320.91)|200.56|(306.37)|(147.28)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|723.87|(1,167.16)|296.03|436.27|206.44| [12] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|-15.77%|-4.27%|14.45%|13.62%|12.13%| |营业利润|-93.61%|900.00%|-20.47%|45.90%|25.16%| |归属于母公司净利润|-75.97%|-0.30%|190.07%|47.04%|24.73%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|31.25%|31.19%|30.63%|30.73%|30.97%| |净利率|3.39%|3.53%|8.94%|11.57%|12.88%| |ROE|3.87%|4.08%|10.06%|13.22%|14.49%| |ROIC|0.36%|7.10%|39.63%|46.31%|82.94%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|44.11%|44.62%|41.09%|37.58%|33.75