报告公司投资评级 - 行业为基础化工/化学原料，6个月评级为买入（维持评级），当前价格19.15元 [9] 报告的核心观点 - 2025年Q1卫星化学归母净利润15.7亿，同比提高53.4%，主要因乙烷裂解利润坚挺及C3产业链量增 [1] - 2025年Q1乙烷裂解、石脑油制乙烯与煤制烯烃平均利润分别为2439、 -7与1378元/吨，乙烷裂解利润领先，后续有望增厚 [2] - 公司新项目2023年底通过发改委审批，一阶段二次环评2024年5月22日挂政府官网，投产后乙烯产量或从250万吨变为500万吨，C2产能或翻倍 [3] - 2025年Q1丙烯酸均价8062元/吨，同比提高1761.5元/吨，截至4月18日维持7800元/吨，25年C3业绩有望增长 [4] - 维持公司2025/2026/2027年归母净利润75.3/95.3/116.1亿元，对应EPS为2.24/2.83/3.45元/股 [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 | 项目 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 41,486.92 | 45,648.35 | 59,342.86 | 72,625.80 | 93,687.29 | | 增长率(%) | 11.99 | 10.03 | 30.00 | 22.38 | 29.00 | | EBITDA(百万元) | 9,874.50 | 12,794.89 | 13,063.14 | 15,676.60 | 18,638.45 | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 4,789.49 | 6,071.84 | 7,531.75 | 9,534.63 | 11,612.15 | | 增长率(%) | 56.42 | 26.77 | 24.04 | 26.59 | 21.79 | | EPS(元/股) | 1.42 | 1.80 | 2.24 | 2.83 | 3.45 | | 市盈率(P/E) | 13.47 | 10.62 | 8.57 | 6.77 | 5.56 | | 市净率(P/B) | 2.53 | 2.13 | 1.76 | 1.43 | 1.16 | | 市销率(P/S) | 1.55 | 1.41 | 1.09 | 0.89 | 0.69 | | EV/EBITDA | 3.93 | 3.84 | 4.27 | 2.91 | 1.86 | [7] 基本数据 - A股总股本3,368.65百万股，流通A股股本3,366.48百万股，A股总市值64,509.56百万元，流通A股市值64,468.14百万元 [10] - 每股净资产9.45元，资产负债率53.62%，一年内最高/最低23.19/14.65元 [10] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) | 项目 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 货币资金 | 6,398.84 | 8,507.13 | 6,812.50 | 18,921.26 | 32,229.09 | | 应收票据及应收账款 | 639.44 | 827.30 | 821.12 | 1,196.27 | 1,406.16 | | 预付账款 | 354.88 | 132.06 | 1,675.13 | 467.84 | 1,753.64 | | 存货 | 4,233.44 | 4,397.58 | 6,492.09 | 6,939.03 | 10,576.49 | | 其他 | 1,106.31 | 1,634.46 | 1,489.85 | 1,545.29 | 1,733.79 | | 流动资产合计 | 12,732.91 | 15,498.54 | 17,290.68 | 29,069.69 | 47,699.17 | | 长期股权投资 | 2,471.47 | 2,405.10 | 2,405.10 | 2,405.10 | 2,405.10 | | 固定资产 | 25,258.27 | 26,966.53 | 27,766.96 | 27,744.72 | 26,781.34 | | 在建工程 | 3,186.40 | 2,823.62 | 2,460.84 | 2,098.06 | 1,735.29 | | 无形资产 | 1,800.55 | 2,331.40 | 2,279.07 | 2,226.74 | 2,174.42 | | 其他 | 19,132.37 | 18,280.03 | 18,062.02 | 18,122.95 | 17,661.34 | | 非流动资产合计 | 51,849.05 | 52,806.67 | 52,973.99 | 52,597.58 | 50,757.49 | | 资产总计 | 64,581.96 | 68,305.21 | 70,264.68 | 81,667.26 | 98,456.66 | | 短期借款 | 1,225.87 | 1,410.54 | 1,237.67 | 1,291.36 | 1,313.19 | | 应付票据及应付账款 | 5,670.28 | 5,621.35 | 8,987.50 | 9,078.82 | 14,242.88 | | 其他 | 4,201.77 | 7,368.88 | 9,214.49 | 11,767.89 | 12,997.53 | | 流动负债合计 | 11,097.93 | 14,400.77 | 19,439.66 | 22,138.07 | 28,553.60 | | 长期借款 | 10,839.04 | 7,245.84 | 9,544.49 | 10,498.94 | 11,548.84 | | 应付债券 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 其他 | 16,334.94 | 15,382.26 | 15,445.52 | 15,720.91 | 15,516.23 | | 非流动负债合计 | 27,173.98 | 22,628.10 | 24,990.01 | 26,219.85 | 27,065.07 | | 负债合计 | 39,088.61 | 38,000.49 | 44,429.68 | 48,357.92 | 55,618.66 | | 少数股东权益 | 28.42 | 18.78 | 23.71 | 29.38 | 25.70 | | 股本 | 3,368.65 | 3,368.65 | 3,368.65 | 3,368.65 | 3,368.65 | | 资本公积 | 4,464.55 | 4,488.41 | 4,488.41 | 4,488.41 | 4,488.41 | | 留存收益 | 17,593.47 | 22,317.84 | 28,838.83 | 37,146.36 | 47,740.89 | | 其他 | 38.26 | 111.04 | (10,884.61) | (11,723.46) | (12,785.66) | | 股东权益合计 | 25,493.36 | 30,304.72 | 25,835.00 | 33,309.35 | 42,838.00 | | 负债和股东权益总计 | 64,581.96 | 68,305.21 | 70,264.68 | 81,667.26 | 98,456.66 | [13] 利润表(百万元) | 项目 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 41,486.92 | 45,648.35 | 59,342.86 | 72,625.80 | 93,687.29 | | 营业成本 | 33,257.39 | 34,890.97 | 45,179.86 | 55,026.27 | 71,737.25 | | 营业税金及附加 | 143.51 | 283.48 | 178.03 | 217.88 | 281.06 | | 销售费用 | 145.27 | 128.15 | 160.23 | 196.09 | 252.96 | | 管理费用 | 530.82 | 756.86 | 1,780.29 | 2,178.77 | 2,810.62 | | 研发费用 | 1,626.01 | 1,751.01 | 2,276.32 | 2,785.83 | 3,593.72 | | 财务费用 | 811.16 | 1,024.57 | 1,078.29 | 1,209.39 | 1,425.79 | | 资产/信用减值损失 | (10.78) | (301.83) | (36.49) | (21.26) | (119.86) | | 公允价值变动收益 | 187.37 | 265.53 | 243.07 | 260.00 | 250.00 | | 投资净收益 | (13.78) | (108.41) | (27.00) | (24.56) | (53.32) | | 其他 | (567.87) | (75.67) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 营业利润 | 5,377.82 | 7,033.69 | 8,869.42 | 11,225.75 | 13,662.71 | | 营业外收入 | 10.66 | 37.63 | 13.94 | 18.29 | 23.29 | | 营业外支出 | 20.45 | 53.24 | 15.79 | 19.17 | 29.40 | | 利润总额 | 5,368.03 | 7,018.08 | 8,867.57 | 11,224.87 | 13,656.60 | | 所得税 | 584.27 | 956.12 | 1,330.14 | 1,683.73 | 2,048.49 | | 净利润 | 4,783.75 | 6,061.96 | 7,537.44 | 9,541.14 | 11,608.11 | | 少数股东损益 | (5.74) | (9.88) | 5.69 | 6.51 | (4.04) | | 归属于母公司净利润 | 4,789.49 | 6,071.84 | 7,531.75 | 9,534.63 | 11,612.15 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.42 | 1.80 | 2.24 | 2.83 | 3.45 | [13][14] 现金流量表(百万元) | 项目 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营运资金变动 | (1,719.16) | (1,627.77) | (599.40) | 2,053.37 | 174.90 | | 长期投资 | 232.89 | (66.37) | (33.39) | 44.38 | (18.46) | | 股权融资 | (1,831.75) | 96.63 | (1,071.32) | (1,212.33) | (1,007.73) | | 净利润 | 4,783.75 | 6,061.96 | 7,531.75 | 9,534.63 | 11,612.15 | | 折旧摊销 | 2,625.79 | 2,999.80 | 3,045.29 | 3,201.64 | 3,316.6