报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [4] 报告的核心观点 - 青岛港是山东国资控股的中国北方最大外贸口岸，吞吐量增速领跑行业，综合实力世界一流，货源结构综合、航线分布广泛，抗风险能力较强，美国方向进出口货量约占总货物吞吐量的5%，2014 - 24年营业收入和归母净利润增长迅速，预计2025年货物、集装箱吞吐量有望保持稳定增长 [1] - 2025年2月公司调整重组方案，仅保留现金购买资产方式收购油品公司100%股权和日照实华50%股权，预计合并后ROE有所摊薄但仍处行业较高水平，EPS增厚6.07%，资产包对应PB为1.2倍，估值合理，收购附带业绩承诺及补偿约定，交易有利于发挥协同效应，提高油品业务稳定性 [2] - 2024年青岛港ROE（加权）和ROA分别为13%和9.3%，在A股上市港口中居首位，液散、集装箱业务有望推动ROE稳中有升，公司具备较高ROE和ROIC、较低杠杆率，适当加杠杆ROE会进一步提高，现金流充裕、分红比例高，2018 - 24年分红比例均值为44%，股息率托底投资价值，截至目前PE（TTM）为10.7倍，低于多数同行，若利率震荡下行，投资价值凸显 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|18,173.13|18,941.00|19,782.26|20,636.63|21,259.96| |增长率(%)|(5.66)|4.23|4.44|4.32|3.02| |EBITDA(百万元)|8,076.27|8,382.28|8,637.68|9,071.58|9,588.51| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|4,923.32|5,234.90|5,419.94|5,627.74|5,915.14| |增长率(%)|8.80|6.33|3.53|3.83|5.11| |EPS(元/股)|0.76|0.81|0.83|0.87|0.91| |市盈率(P/E)|11.33|10.65|10.29|9.91|9.43| |市净率(P/B)|1.38|1.31|1.21|1.13|1.05| |市销率(P/S)|3.07|2.94|2.82|2.70|2.62| |EV/EBITDA|4.05|6.05|5.06|4.75|4.16|[5] 基本数据 - A股总股本(百万股)：5,392.08 - 流通A股股本(百万股)：5,392.08 - A股总市值(百万元)：46,317.92 - 流通A股市值(百万元)：46,317.92 - 每股净资产(元)：6.76 - 资产负债率(%)：26.03 - 一年内最高/最低(元)：10.61/7.91 [6] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|10,934.03|12,673.13|16,497.23|17,497.50|21,058.44| |应收票据及应收账款|2,036.13|2,125.28|2,220.96|2,312.99|2,357.90| |预付账款|126.61|139.29|141.15|151.79|149.51| |存货|51.60|40.69|56.65|45.02|59.55| |其他|1,553.68|1,445.67|1,447.70|1,736.38|1,507.01| |流动资产合计|14,702.05|16,424.06|20,363.68|21,743.68|25,132.41| |长期股权投资|14,045.73|14,510.95|15,010.95|15,510.95|16,010.95| |固定资产|23,728.48|24,584.19|25,946.54|27,652.71|29,234.63| |在建工程|1,757.34|1,247.84|1,123.92|1,561.96|1,530.98| |无形资产|3,112.59|3,011.12|2,805.26|2,646.90|2,488.54| |其他|2,810.23|2,762.17|2,236.12|1,710.73|1,210.73| |非流动资产合计|45,454.37|46,116.28|47,122.79|49,083.26|50,475.84| |资产总计|60,245.86|62,749.75|67,486.47|70,826.94|75,608.25| |短期借款|126.41|95.33|100.00|100.00|100.00| |应付票据及应付账款|2,787.75|2,098.80|3,054.82|2,328.39|3,208.47| |其他|5,324.47|5,929.73|6,267.84|6,582.92|6,540.72| |流动负债合计|8,238.63|8,123.86|9,422.67|9,011.30|9,849.19| |长期借款|1,791.98|1,997.89|1,800.00|1,800.00|1,800.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|5,361.17|5,557.06|5,557.06|5,557.06|5,557.06| |非流动负债合计|7,153.16|7,554.95|7,357.06|7,357.06|7,357.06| |负债合计|15,707.20|15,957.67|16,779.72|16,368.36|17,206.25| |少数股东权益|4,261.61|4,304.15|4,665.48|5,040.67|5,435.01| |股本|6,491.10|6,491.10|6,491.10|6,491.10|6,491.10| |资本公积|11,734.76|11,725.62|11,725.62|11,725.62|11,725.62| |留存收益|22,228.67|24,827.53|28,079.49|31,456.14|35,005.22| |其他|(177.47)|(556.32)|(254.95)|(254.95)|(254.95)| |股东权益合计|44,538.66|46,792.09|50,706.75|54,458.58|58,402.00| |负债和股东权益总计|60,245.86|62,749.75|67,486.47|70,826.94|75,608.25|[21][22] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|18,173.13|18,941.00|19,782.26|20,636.63|21,259.96| |营业成本|11,701.55|12,227.05|12,895.33|13,469.81|13,854.26| |营业税金及附加|149.30|171.77|179.40|187.15|192.80| |销售费用|76.14|65.03|67.92|70.86|73.00| |管理费用|1,036.93|1,067.12|1,107.81|1,155.65|1,190.56| |研发费用|104.94|104.98|109.65|114.38|117.84| |财务费用|108.78|60.19|64.03|76.53|93.72| |资产/信用减值损失|26.16|(19.08)|(13.00)|(13.00)|(13.00)| |公允价值变动收益|(0.56)|4.63|25.00|25.00|25.00| |投资净收益|1,570.33|1,693.25|1,820.09|1,940.65|2,171.60| |其他|(3,353.63)|(3,507.41)|(220.00)|(180.00)|(167.25)| |营业利润|6,753.19|7,073.46|7,410.22|7,694.90|8,088.63| |营业外收入|41.48|11.70|25.00|25.00|25.00| |营业外支出|4.92|17.37|10.00|10.00|10.00| |利润总额|6,789.74|7,067.79|7,425.22|7,709.90|8,103.63| |所得税|1,272.08|1,335.52|1,403.06|1,456.86|1,531.25| |净利润|5,517.66|5,732.26|6,022.15|6,253.05|6,572.37| |少数股东损益|594.34|497.37|602.22|625.30|657.24| |归属于母公司净利润|4,923.32|5,234.90|5,419.94|5,627.74|5,915.14| |每股收益（元）|0.76|0.81|0.83|0.87|0.91|[21][22] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营运资金变动|(172.24)|(143.86)|1,135.22|(765.71)|1,010.10| |长期投资|1,157.64|465.22|500.00|500.00|500.00| |股权融资|(2,189.99)|(1,124.08)|(2,107.49)|(2,501.22)|(2,628.95)| |净利润|5,517.66|5,732.26|5,419.94|5,627.74|5,915.14| |折旧摊销|1,318.33|1,299.07|1,367.44|1,464.15|1,557.41| |财务费用|238.63|129.50|64.03|76.53|93.72| |投资损失|(1,571.08)|(1,693.25)|(1,820.09)|(1,940.65)|(2,171.60)| |其它|820.09|(170.95)|627.22|650.30|682.24| |经营活动现金流|6,151.40|5,152.78|6,793.75|5,112.37|7,087.01| |资本支出|3,709.12|1,784.56|2,400.00|3,450.00|2,950.00| |其他|(6,850.94)|(2,288.33)|(3,504.91)|(5,484.35)|(4,253.40)| |投资活动现金流|(1,984.17)|(38.54)|(604.91)|(1,534.35)|(803.40)| |债权融资|(269.97)|226.85|(257.25)|(76.53)|(93.72)| |其他|(592.26)|(2,135.73)|0.00|0.00