报告行业投资评级 未提及 报告的核心观点 - 本周高硫裂解震荡，380近端强势运行，月差再度走强，基差震荡；低硫裂解震荡，月差近端下行，基差震荡 [3] - 本周新加坡陆上大幅累库，ARA港口小幅累库，美国渣油去库 [3] - 近期低硫估值兑现，供应恢复后裂解、月间有修复空间；高硫裂解强势运行，利润高于历史同期 [3][4] - 今年国内受消费税抵扣、关税调整影响，燃料油炼厂进料需求回落明显，船燃方面全球高硫船燃1 - 3月同比+2%，新加坡基本持平，总船燃同比偏弱，后续关注关税对全球贸易活动影响 [4] - 近期沙特净进口回升，埃及采买持续，高硫近端强势，关注中长期高硫裂解回落机会 [4] 各数据总结 鹿特丹燃料油掉期数据 | 类型 | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期M1 | 407.04 | 407.23 | 409.58 | 403.67 | 405.64 | 1.97 | | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期M1 | 446.85 | 446.09 | 447.99 | 444.44 | 449.27 | 4.83 | | 鹿特丹HSFO - Brent M1 | -0.62 | -0.27 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.44 | -0.40 | | 鹿特丹10ppm Gasoil掉期M1 | 593.82 | 588.04 | 589.31 | 583.79 | 588.32 | 4.53 | | 鹿特丹VLSFO - GO M1 | -146.97 | -141.95 | -141.32 | -139.35 | -139.05 | 0.30 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 16.37 | 15.90 | 16.50 | 16.30 | 16.50 | 0.20 | | 鹿特丹VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 39.81 | 38.86 | 38.41 | 40.77 | 43.63 | 2.86 | [1] 新加坡燃料油掉期数据 | 类型 | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新加坡380cst M1 | 428.78 | 431.93 | 441.46 | 428.49 | 426.54 | -1.95 | | 新加坡180cst M1 | 436.10 | 438.43 | 447.56 | 434.99 | 432.91 | -2.08 | | 新加坡VLSFO M1 | 487.21 | 485.73 | 489.98 | 482.50 | 479.50 | -3.00 | | 新加坡GO M1 | 79.83 | 79.88 | 80.60 | 78.60 | 78.23 | -0.37 | | 新加坡380cst - Brent M1 | 3.27 | 3.21 | 3.91 | 3.69 | 3.74 | 0.05 | | 新加坡VLSFO - GO M1 | -103.53 | -105.38 | -106.46 | -99.14 | -99.40 | -0.26 | [1][9] 新加坡燃料油现货数据 | 类型 | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 431.06 | 434.71 | 443.64 | 429.70 | 428.80 | -0.90 | | FOB VLSFO | 499.38 | 498.93 | 502.27 | 493.36 | 490.04 | -3.32 | | 380基差 | -0.45 | -0.25 | 0.30 | -0.18 | 1.50 | 1.68 | | 高硫内外价差 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 9.4 | -0.8 | | 低硫内外价差 | 14.5 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 0.8 | [2] 国内FU数据 | 类型 | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2705 | 2722 | 2748 | 2695 | 2692 | -3 | | FU 05 | 2649 | 2662 | 2669 | 2634 | 2638 | 4 | | FU 09 | 2847 | 2874 | 2910 | 2841 | 2833 | -8 | | FU 01 - 05 | 56 | 60 | 79 | 61 | 54 | -7 | | FU 05 - 09 | -198 | -212 | -241 | -207 | -195 | 12 | | FU 09 - 01 | 142 | 152 | 162 | 146 | 141 | -5 | [2] 国内LU数据 | 类型 | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3378 | 3390 | 3393 | 3350 | 3358 | 8 | | LU 05 | 3313 | 3314 | 3307 | 3330 | 3291 | -39 | | LU 09 | 3437 | 3445 | 3456 | 3412 | 3405 | -7 | | LU 01 - 05 | 65 | 76 | 86 | 20 | 67 | 47 | | LU 05 - 09 | -124 | -131 | -149 | -82 | -114 | -32 | | LU 09 - 01 | 59 | 55 | 63 | 62 | 47 | -15 | [3]