报告核心观点 - 油料油脂类农产品偏强震荡，油脂类和农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡，棉花多头上涨有所回落，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整，建议构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益 [2] 各品种标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅（%） | 成交量（万手） | 量变化 | 持仓量（万手） | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | A2509 | 4,133 | 7 | 0.17 | 8.38 | -1.89 | 12.06 | -0.16 | | 豆二 | B2509 | 3,683 | 13 | 0.35 | 13.82 | 4.34 | 10.16 | 0.69 | | 豆粕 | M2509 | 3,023 | 19 | 0.63 | 101.63 | -4.40 | 139.61 | -1.92 | | 菜籽粕 | RM2509 | 2,689 | 10 | 0.37 | 29.68 | -18.43 | 41.97 | -2.33 | | 棕榈油 | P2509 | 8,784 | -110 | -1.24 | 51.21 | 3.30 | 39.41 | -0.03 | | 豆油 | Y2509 | 8,226 | -2 | -0.02 | 41.76 | 12.88 | 49.98 | 2.26 | | 菜籽油 | OI2509 | 9,467 | -28 | -0.29 | 21.67 | -4.45 | 18.91 | -0.55 | | 鸡蛋 | JD2509 | 3,484.00 | -45.00 | -1.28 | 14.61 | -7.33 | 22.60 | -1.01 | | 生猪 | LH2509 | 14,055 | -70 | -0.50 | 3.14 | 0.23 | 4.10 | -0.42 | | 花生 | PK2510 | 8,094 | -6 | -0.07 | 2.85 | -0.95 | 9.95 | 0.02 | | 苹果 | AP2510 | 7,758 | -70 | -0.89 | 3.81 | -2.51 | 8.37 | -0.44 | | 红枣 | CJ2601 | 10,920 | 170 | 1.58 | 22.09 | 4.62 | 14.05 | 1.20 | | 白糖 | SR2509 | 5,723 | -39 | -0.68 | 18.36 | 3.40 | 23.11 | -2.40 | | 棉花 | CF2509 | 13,565.00 | -50.00 | -0.37 | 19.17 | -3.85 | 32.58 | -2.37 | | 玉米 | C2509 | 2,295 | -1 | -0.04 | 44.90 | -5.24 | 74.67 | -2.31 | | 淀粉 | CS2509 | 2,665 | 0 | 0.00 | 8.67 | -4.48 | 15.84 | -0.38 | | 原木 | LG2509 | 822 | -3 | -0.30 | 1.89 | 0.11 | 1.96 | -0.23 | [3] 各品种期权因子 - 量仓PCR | 期权品种 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | 成交量PCR | 量PCR变化 | 持仓量PCR | 仓PCR变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | 28,598 | -6,402 | 80,582 | 1,528 | 0.41 | -0.14 | 0.38 | -0.01 | | 豆二 | 39,338 | 16,608 | 41,410 | 2,232 | 0.35 | -0.32 | 0.64 | -0.01 | | 豆粕 | 369,340 | 58,529 | 1,060,177 | -17,282 | 0.49 | -0.03 | 0.57 | 0.01 | | 菜籽粕 | 107,466 | -132,047 | 190,022 | 1,087 | 0.54 | -0.01 | 1.06 | -0.03 | | 棕榈油 | 250,942 | 59,027 | 311,599 | 8,044 | 1.37 | 0.33 | 1.27 | -0.01 | | 豆油 | 157,258 | 89,982 | 189,850 | 12,355 | 0.42 | -0.13 | 0.74 | -0.02 | | 菜籽油 | 53,977 | -10,517 | 142,370 | 1,037 | 0.62 | -0.08 | 0.95 | -0.01 | | 鸡蛋 | 83,243 | -11,000 | 166,490 | 6,708 | 0.48 | 0.10 | 0.32 | -0.00 | | 生猪 | 17,345 | 1,805 | 45,945 | 559 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.00 | | 花生 | 19,173 | -2,768 | 89,324 | -56 | 0.49 | -0.03 | 0.45 | -0.00 | | 苹果 | 7,860 | -6,900 | 45,771 | 925 | 0.46 | -0.01 | 0.41 | 0.00 | | 红枣 | 16,769 | 7,301 | 32,794 | 1,590 | 0.18 | -0.10 | 0.23 | 0.01 | | 白糖 | 147,860 | 31,570 | 299,275 | -935 | 0.80 | 0.32 | 0.55 | -0.02 | | 棉花 | 188,249 | -24,371 | 487,276 | 5,518 | 0.56 | -0.01 | 0.75 | -0.01 | | 玉米 | 116,170 | -53,040 | 503,067 | 6,293 | 0.61 | 0.06 | 0.51 | 0.01 | | 淀粉 | 16,921 | -12,503 | 59,920 | -471 | 0.56 | -0.06 | 0.87 | 0.03 | | 原木 | 13,999 | 4,320 | 31,044 | 1,266 | 0.44 | 0.06 | 0.50 | -0.02 | [4] 各品种期权因子 - 压力位和支撑位 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 平值行权价 | 压力点 | 压力点偏移 | 支撑点 | 支撑点偏移 | 购最大持仓 | 沽最大持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | A2509 | 4,100 | 4,300 | 0 | 4,100 | 0 | 8,832 | 3,464 | | 豆二 | B2509 | 3,700 | 3,650 | 0 | 3,650 | 0 | 3,618 | 4,129 | | 豆粕 | M2509 | 3,000 | 3,100 | 0 | 2,900 | 0 | 62,181 | 44,254 | | 菜籽粕 | RM2509 | 2,700 | 2,800 | 0 | 2,500 | 0 | 17,780 | 11,247 | | 棕榈油 | P2509 | 8,900 | 10,000 | 0 | 8,000 | 0 | 23,066 | 15,597 | | 豆油 | Y2509 | 8,300 | 7,800 | 0 | 7,900 | 0 | 16,435 | 12,132 | | 菜籽油 | OI2509 | 9,500 | 10,000 | 0 | 9,000 | 0 | 6,394 | 5,530 | | 鸡蛋 | JD2509 | 3,500 | 4,000 | 0 | 3,400 | 0 | 24,630 | 4,534 | | 生猪 | LH2509 | 14,000 | 18,000 | 0 | 13,600 | 0 | 5,473 | 1,138 | | 花生 | PK2510 | 8,100 | 9,000 | 0 | 8,000 | 0 | 7,876 | 5,302 | | 苹果 | AP2510 | 7,800 | 8,900 | 0 | 7,000 | 0 | 7,192 | 3,105 | | 红枣 | CJ2601 | 11,000 | 12,600 | 800 | 10,000 | 0 | 5,972 | 557 | | 白糖 | SR2509 | 5,700 | 5,900 | 0 | 5,700 | 0 | 25,920 | 19,232 | | 棉花 | CF2509 | 13,600 | 15,800 | 0 | 13,600 | 200 | 30,381 | 14,072 | | 玉米 | C2509 | 2,300 | 2,340 | 0 | 2,300 | 0 | 27,117 | 20,030 | | 淀粉 | CS2509 | 2,650 | 2,700 | 0 | 2,700 | 0 | 6,234 | 11,595 | | 原木 | LG2509 | 800 | 900 | 0 | 750 | 0 | 4,662 | 1,723 | [5] 各品种期权因子 - 隐含波动率（%） | 期权品种 | 平值隐波率 | 加权隐波率 | 加权隐波率变化 | 年平均 | 购隐波率 | 沽隐波率 | HISV20 | 隐历波动率差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | 8.295 | 13.57 | 1.53 | 14.32 | 15.20 | 9.64 | 10.85 | -2.55 | | 豆二 | 13.56 | 15.57 | 0.81 | 17.64 | 16.41 | 13.21 | 12.74 | 0.82 | | 豆粕 | 13.84 | 16.68 | -0.10 | 19.96 | 17.44 | 15.15 | 14.25 | -0.41 | | 菜籽粕 | 22.33 | 25.56 | -0.16 | 25.44 | 27.00 | 22.88 | 20.33 | 2.00 | | 棕榈油 | 17.83 | 20.86 | -0.22 | 21.08 | 21.96 | 20.06 | 18.18 | -0.35 | | 豆油 | 15.185 | 18.38 | 1.64 | 15.90 | 19.58 | 15.53 | 12.68 | 2.50 | | 菜籽油 | 13.35 | 17.16 | 0.61 | 18.86 | 17.92 | 15.93 | 14.81 | -1.46 | | 鸡蛋 | 19.8 | 26.51 | -1.26 | 22.97 | 29.32 | 20.66 | 22.38 | -2.58 | | 生猪 | 15.89 | 23.86 | -2.41 | 18.72 | 25.60 | 17.92 | 15.99 | -0.10 | | 花生 | 12.15 | 16.39 | 0.31 | 12.98 | 18.15 | 12.80 | 11.80 | 0.35 | | 苹果 | 20.19 | 24.60 | 0.78 | 22.32 | 25.54 | 22.55 | 18.02 | 2.17 | | 红枣 | 27.005 | 30.39 | 1.88 | 24.09 | 31.61 | 23.48 | 24.57 | 2.44 | | 白糖 | 7.995 | 11.63 | -0.28 | 11.99 | 13.73 | 9.00 | 9.82 | -1.83 | | 棉花 | 10.035 | 15.68 | -1.43 | 13.64 | 17.96 | 11.56 | 12.41 | -2.37 | | 玉米