报告行业投资评级 未提及 报告的核心观点 周四天胶走势回落，地缘冲突下原油带动化工品偏强，但通胀和经济不利影响预期增强、流动性风险提升；天胶处于季节性低产阶段至5月，国内青岛库存持续累库、供应端弹性减弱、原料胶价坚挺；需求端节后开工预计复苏，全钢胎开工平稳；短期盘面受地缘冲突影响，胶价预计区间波动为主[2] 各部分总结 期货市场 |品种|前日收盘价|前2日收盘价|涨跌|涨跌幅|成交量|持仓量|持仓量增减| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |RU主力|16555|16740|-185|-1.11%|332143|147781|-4810| |NR主力|13370|13535|-165|-1.22%|75669|64528|923| |BR主力|14110|13880|230|1.66%|174560|57079|3909|[2] 价差 |价差类型|现值|前值|涨跌| | --- | --- | --- | --- | |RU - NR|3185|3205|-20| |RU - BR|2445|2860|-415| |NR - BR|-740|-345|-395|[2] 基差 |基差类型|现值|前值| | --- | --- | --- | |RU基差|-105|-140| |混合 - RU|-935|-1055| |烟片 - RU|2845|2660|[2] 现货市场 |现货品种|现值（元/吨）|前值（元/吨）|涨跌幅| | --- | --- | --- | --- | |全乳山东|16350|16500|-0.91%| |全乳上海|16450|16600|-0.90%| |全乳昆明|16400|16500|-0.61%| |烟片山东|19400|19400|0.00%| |烟片上海|19400|19400|0.00%| |混合青岛|15620|15685|-0.41%| |混合云南|16300|16250|0.31%|[2] 下游市场 |下游品种|现值（泰铢/千克）|前值（泰铢/千克）|涨跌幅| | --- | --- | --- | --- | |泰国烟片|70.89|70.88|0.01%| |泰国杯胶|58.53|58.53|0.00%| |泰国乳胶|69|69|0.00%|[2]